The announcement of the Ipsos-mori poll on Newsnight Scotland last night was great theatre. A rumour had been put out that the SNP had moved clear ahead of Labour, that was then cemented at 11pm as an 11 point constituency lead and 10 point regional lead and viewers were then left to speculate what the actual poll result was and at whose expense had that lead been won from.Â
However, theatre all if this may remain as there is a good chance that this poll is an outlier. Certainly anything that predicts Iain Gray, Andy Kerr and Jackie Baillie to lose their seats, as this poll does, should be treated with caution. I personally don’t believe it can be that far from the truth though. The SNP has ran a near-perfect campaign, ruthlessly outplayed its opponents, been equal to any interview/er, beaten a truculent media into submission and the Labour campaign has somehow been a worse showing than 2007.Â
So, that poll:
SNP – 45/42
Labour – 34/32Â
Conservatives – 10/10Â
Lib Dems – 9/8Â
Greens – -/6Â
This gives a seat breakdown (through my model) of (const/list):
SNP -Â 48/10 = 58
Labour -Â 23/26 = 49
Conservatives -Â 0/11 = 11
Lib Dems -Â 2/5 = 7
Greens -Â 0/3 = 3
Margo – 1
There is a lot that is remarkable in the above, the SNP only taking 10 regional seats, the easy passage of an independence referendum Bill tantalisingly close, no FPTP seats for the Tories (and Annabel out on her ear), Lib Dem seats down by over half (and Tavish out on his ear), the holding up of the Labour vote from 2007 and, not unrelated, the SNP charge coming at the expense of Tory and Lib Dem voters who appear to be voting tactically for Salmond or tactically against Labour winning.
Note also that the Greens have held up well on 6% despite the methodology in this Ipsos-MORI poll really counting against them (lumped in with others, no prompt for individual party etc). (Is that it James? You might have to run it past me again). The main reason that the Greens only get 3 seats from this poll is because Labour is just too dominant in hoovering up the seats that the SNP is leaving behind. Labour win 3 regional spots in Glasgow for goodness sake and the 4 they take in MS&F/Lothians are certainly the reasons that the Greens miss out there (missing out on a 2nd spot in Lothians that is, Alison Johnstone will get in if this poll is replicated in May).
Anyway, I decided it’s not worth going to town over who wins where and what seat might fall there (the closest contested seat is Cunninghame South, SNP gain over Labour by 165 votes).
For a start, the more distance between SNP and Labour the less interesting/exciting the number crunching becomes, secondly because there is a lot of scepticism as to the veracity of this poll and thirdly, the race between Tories, Lib Dems and Greens to be the party that can work with, or even within, the Government is becoming more intriguing.Â
So, I thought instead I would go back to the detail of the YouGov poll from Sunday and see if anything could be extrapolated in conjunction with this more outlandish Ipsos Mori poll.
From YouGov we can see that:
– Lib Dem constituency voters are breaking for the Conservatives on the second vote, unsurprisingly, and not out of step with 2007.
– Conservative voters are the most loyal set of voters, 90% of them staying with the Tories in the list vote. (It is interesting to note that reciprocation with the Lib Dems is not realised as only 2% of Tory voters break for the Lib Dems, half that of the 4% that break for the SNP. There are no instances of 1st vote Tory, 2nd vote Green.)
– 0% of Labour constituency voters are voting SSP or Solidarity in the list vote. For the SNP, this figure is a not inconsiderable 7%.
– The Greens are getting more success from Labour voters than SNP ones, picking up 6% of Labour constituency voters for the second vote and 4% from the SNP.
So what does this mean? Well, don’t be surprised to see a Socialist MSP to pop up in a region or two. Also, I can see the Tory and Lib Dem votes holding flat, as they have done over the past few weeks now, but the Greens on 6% in this poll is heartening and the positive media they have received and distinctive manifesto could give them scope to push their share of the vote higher, either from disillusioned Labour voters or SNP voters who now believe they can afford to go Green, either tactically or through a calculated splitting of the vote.
Pushing the Green share of the vote up to 8% gives them 7 MSPs, 2 from the Tories and 2 from Labour. How can tactical voting not be an attractive proposition under those circumstances?
And, for the SNP, a warning and a boost. The warning is that their second vote is still at risk of being amongst the flakiest with voters but the good news is that the tipping point for winning numerous FPTP seats may well have been reached and the regional vote will be less of a factor.
So what happens now? Labour have two options, to attack or inspire and there is little doubt that they will decide the former is more likely to work. Independence may well be an issue in this election after all as the unionist parties warning voters that a too-popular SNP may indirectly deliver independence could work to dampen down the SNP surge. I suspect that this attack will not work as it will only free up voters to indulge in voting for independents and ‘minor parties’, safe in the knowledge that power is out of Iain Gray’s reach.
It still looks possible that the independence activist’s dream, referendum-delivering coalition of SNP+Green+SSP+Margo may yet be greater than 65 MSPs.
UPDATE:
By request, I’ve included some of the more surprising seats that the SNP is projected to take, strictly on the back of this poll (I know Malc will be rolling his eyes at this inclusion so I’ll just say remember to take a pinch of salt before reading on….)
Airdrie & Shotts (Karen Whitefield) – SNP maj 2,200
Clackmanannshire & Dunblane (Richard Simpson) – SNP maj 3,945
Clydesdale (Karen Gillon) – SNP maj 1,797
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth (Cathy Craigie) – SNP maj 983
Cunninghame South (Irene Oldfather) – SNP maj 165
Dumbarton (Jackie Baillie) – SNP maj 1,332
East Kilbride (Andy Kerr) – SNP maj 1,304
East Lothian (Iain Gray) – SNP maj 396
Edinburgh Central (Sarah Boyack (on the list)) – SNP maj 269
Edinburgh North & Leith (Malcolm Chisholm) – SNP maj 232
Glasgow Cathcart (Charlie Gordon) – SNP maj 523
Glasgow Kelvin (Pauline McNeill) – SNP maj 916
Midlothian North & Musselburgh () – SNP maj 1,467
Stirling () – SNP maj 2,718
#1 by Colin on April 21, 2011 - 1:04 pm
Well, it would seem now that Labour win predicted on your model is wrong – however, it was probably right for the time. The poll swing seems to be so great. At the start of this campaign I was certain of a Labour victory, but now I’m certain of an SNP one.
Two weeks is a long time though, but the trend is set and if anything I see it continuing in the direction it is.
#2 by Malc on April 21, 2011 - 1:12 pm
But Colin – this poll could be “wrong” tomorrow as well! This thing is so fluid. I’m not certain of anything. Except that this won’t be the result (numbers-wise that is – the SNP will likely win, but not 48 constituencies…).
#3 by Colin on April 21, 2011 - 1:16 pm
Indeed, hence my caveat. Do we have any knowledge of when the next poll will be released?
#4 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 1:15 pm
As you say Colin, we were largely just following what the polls were saying. The only real prediction I have made for this election was back in January (Labour win, which I’d like to amend please!)
Two weeks is a long time but what can Labour do? Manifesto is out and the Iain Gray die is cast. Complacency and not getting the vote out are the SNP’s main risks; not too shabby with only a fortnight to go.
#5 by Colin on April 21, 2011 - 1:20 pm
Posters on forums everywhere are claiming victory already, which is fine, they can say what they want. However, no SNP candidate should do that – it’s a sure way for them to lose votes. I’m sure that the party has probably already warned them of this.
And I wasn’t being critical (and I know you know I wasn’t being critical), I agreed with most of your analysis, it’s just that times have changed very quickly. Perhaps the thought that was lurking in the back of our minds – that when the electorate switches from ‘Westminster mode’ to ‘Holyrood mode’ the polls will change. Surely that is one of many factors (in addition to the ones you mentioned above).
Anyway, good news for me – a Liberal Democrat voter who has switched their allegiance to the SNP! 🙂
#6 by Malcolm McConnell on April 21, 2011 - 1:19 pm
Interesting breakdown of a very interesting poll here Jeff. I’ve seen other extrapolations producing slightly different breakdowns of seats – but frankly I don’t really understand the methodology so can’t compare their accuracy.
What does appear to be consistent across all these reports is the tantalisingly close prospect of a majority of pro-independence MSP in Holyrood. I’ve always argued that it is a mistake by the Unionist parties to so utterly equate the SNP with independence and vice-versa. By so consistently playing the man and not the ball it seems that the gradual emergence of pro-independence stances amongst other parties could ultimately prove decisive.
In the end this could prove to be a rogue poll, but if nothing else it is illustrative of the now clear trend in voting preferences in this campaign. If the numbers in this poll are even close to accurate this is a major, major problem for Labour. They have already played all the cards in their hand and are increasingly looking like an opposition in waiting. The worst thing for any political campaign is to develop an air of inevitable defeat, and it is hard to conceive of what Gray might do to lift this fog which has undeniably descended over the Labour camp.
#7 by Colin on April 21, 2011 - 1:23 pm
I was also thinking, concerning independence, if polls can show Labour so far ahead in Westminster elections and this can suddenly change for Holyrood election (it is well known that people are willing to vote differently in each), then there is a real possibility that if an independence referendum were before people they might plump for a ‘yes’, despite what polls in the past have said (although I don’t think polls on this issue have been definitive until they do polls on the actual question(s) that will be asked if it ever happens).
#8 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 1:28 pm
Hi Malcolm. Yes, I’ve seen other breakdowns too. It is a reasonably simple set of formulae required to make the seat predictions if one is willing to put the time in to build a model. I have used about 10 decimal points for any figures or percentages I use so I like to think that it is my more detailed approach that is causing any variances (and, thus, my figures are more accurate!) 😉
I actually disagree with you on the impact of independence here. I don’t think there is a “gradual emergence of pro-independence stances”, I think Scots are as resolutely opposed to independence as they have ever been, hence Salmond downplaying their core objective at every turn. I think the charge of ‘a referendum bill by the back door’ could reasonably apply as it is hardly been a theme of the past few weeks. Any SNP/Green/SSP/Margo Government would be within their rights to pass such a Bill, of course, but it might not necessarily be popular.
Support for parties that support independence is on the up; but that does not necessarily mean there is a linkage. The SNP ran a great devolved Government and have nailed this campaign so far; that has nothing to do with independence and if Salmond did change the issue of this election to separation then I’d bet we’d see recent poll surges reversed.
I do agree that Labour is rapidly running out of options and “an air of inevitable defeat” is a fine way of putting it.
#9 by Malcolm McConnell on April 21, 2011 - 4:33 pm
Fair point Jeff and i think I was a bit vague when I was talking about a pro-indepence majority. I was only referring to the possiblity of passing legislation enabling a referendum on the issue, not that independence itself would suddenly have majority public favour. The fact that there are (potenetially) other pro-independence parties in the Parliament is hugely relevant in an election where many voters seem to be very openminded. Indeed in the case of several Lib Dem voters, actively looking for a new party to support. Clearly everyone who votes Green this year is not necessarily a supporter of Scottish independence, just as not every Labour supporter opposes it. However in terms of Parliamentary arithmatic the presence of more Greens/SSP MSPs could be game-changing.
You are right that the SNP have not made an issue of independence in this campiagn, and you may also be right that they would be unwise to do so, but their position regarding a referendum bill next term is explicit enough to defend against accusations of illegitimacy.
I’m not sure I agree (perhaps predictably) that Scots are “reolutely opposed” to independence, but any argument is really just hearsay till the question is put to the people. And hopefully there will be a better chance of doing that on the other side of after this election is decided.
#10 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 4:41 pm
Ah, I see what you mean now. The SNP flying the independence flag alone hasn’t been enough for a majority but with ‘others’ you might just make it past 65. Yes, I agree.
Once again I wonder why some in the independence movement haven’t worked out that they could just form a new political party ‘Scotland 4 Independence’ and only stand in the regions where the SNP win most constituency seats. A total scam, yes, but the quickest and easiest way to a referendum that I can see…
When I say that Scots are “resolutely opposed”, I just mean that it hasn’t even been close to 50% support recently.
#11 by Malcolm McConnell on April 21, 2011 - 5:02 pm
That’s actually a really good idea, if massively underhanded!
And you’ve really gotten to the nub of what I’m saying. The independence issue is particularly complex as the main parties by-and-large tow a very disciplined line – nationalist and unionist and never the twain shall meet. But I’m not convinced the voters do as independence is generally not the decisive issue on which most people cast their vote. For example I don’t think politically the leap from being a disenfranchised long-term Lib Dem voter to a new Green voter is that huge, indeed it seems almost like the natural progression to me. However in terms of the party’s position on independence it is a complete flip. Doesn’t mean the voter themselves has changed their mind, but that is basically irrelevant when it comes to Parliamentary arithmatic. It is that way that the rise of the ‘others’, even as half-arsed independence supporters, could really shake the place up 🙂
#12 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 5:08 pm
Very good point. I hadn’t thought of the independence aspect when considering Lib Dems moving to the Greens; nor, as you say, will they!
#13 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 21, 2011 - 7:57 pm
I’m not sure I can concur with this. Isn’t it the conventional wisdom that a Tory government in Westminster makes the idea of independence a lot more attractive to Scots? That certainly seems to have been the case in the most recent poll on the subject (can’t remember who by, sorry) which saw support for independence surge to only 1 point below opposition, with a large percentage undecided.
I agree that a lot of Scots currently considering an SNP vote might shy away if the Nats looked like being able to force through independence itself, but haven’t polls also shown with great consistency that a vast majority of people DO want a referendum, regardless of which party they support or which way they’d plan to vote in it?
If Labour’s plan for the next two weeks is to scare people with the thought of a referendum, I think they’ll be signing their suicide note once and for all. Who’s going to flock back to a party on the strength of being denied a voice on their country’s future?
#14 by Scott on April 21, 2011 - 8:32 pm
You’ve got to get a referendum bill through the door first for there to be a vote on it. It remains highly dubious that it would get past the presiding officer – for the same reasons the presiding officer’s office indicated that the bill would be rejected it in the last session (that last point is based on the Sunday herald report on the withdrawal of the bill).
#15 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 8:50 pm
Might I cynically suggest that it would depend on who the Presiding Officer is? The way things are going, the SNP would have plenty of MSPs to spare….
#16 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 21, 2011 - 8:56 pm
Got a link for that? It’s the first I’ve heard of it, and it’d take a bold PO (especially if it was a Labour one) to vote it down on some technicality. I can’t imagine the electorate taking kindly to it.
#17 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 8:59 pm
I agree. If the Chamber can hold debates on international conflict (which it can’t do anything about), then I don’t see why it can’t hold a vote on a Referendum Bill.
Wasn’t there a debate held on condemning the SNP for even considering independence? Politically speaking, the PO and/or opposing parties couldn’t get away with stopping a Referendum Bill through some parliamentary procedure.
#18 by Malc on April 21, 2011 - 9:07 pm
I’m sure Scott will give you the legal stuff… but he’s talking from real legal knowledge. Its an issue that has never been properly explored, and needs to be.
#19 by Scott on April 21, 2011 - 9:16 pm
This is nothing to do with parliamentary procedure. Nor is it a spurious argument. Sadly our journalists, and those involved in discourse on the issue, have neglected to take into account some fundamental points.
The Scottish parliament was not born free. The Scottish government is not free. The Presiding officer is not free to act as he or she wishes. Each must act in accordance with the legislative structure that set up the Parliament and the executive – the Scotland Act 1998. This does not allow the Parliament to legislate on reserved matters. These reserved matters include the constitution. This is not small print. This is a fundamental aspect of the constitutional structure. Holyrood cannot enact legislation on consumer sales of goods, on consumer credit, and a variety of other issues. Nor can it enact legislation on matters relating to the constitution.
There is a huge difference between consideration of a bill, and a debate on foreign issues. A bill ends up in legislation which has to be within the powers of the Parliament. A debate on international affairs is a nice opportunity for people to vent their spleens but has no impact at all on anyone or anything.
The Presiding Officer only allows bills to be introduced which are within the competence of the Parliament. He or she will act on legal advice. The Parliament can only pass bills that are within its competence. A referendum bill is, at best, of dubious competence. The Sunday Herald reported ““SNP sources also said the First Minister revealed there were legal problems surrounding the wording of the referendum question. This related to talks between the Government and the Parliament’s Presiding Officer, who has to rule whether a Bill falls within the powers of Holyrood.†http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/salmond-shelves-plans-for-referendum-on-uk-break-up-1.1052924
The Presiding Officer’s duties are to be independent of party interest. He is to act within the law. Failure to act within the law can be open to challenge by anyone.
I blogged on this a while ago http://loveandgarbage.wordpress.com/2010/09/06/conjuring-tricks-legislative-competence-and-referenda/
http://loveandgarbage.wordpress.com/2010/09/08/why-the-referendum-bill-falls-outwith-the-legislative-competence-of-holyrood/
http://loveandgarbage.wordpress.com/2010/09/09/the-referendum-and-legality-the-parliamentary-debates/
The estimable LPW took a different view. http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.com/2010/09/is-independence-referendum-legal.html
I don’t think there is a knock-down argument either way – and if I am right I think this is something the SNP could use to their advantage. But there is no absolute entitlement to get a bill into the parliament and passed. The framework of the Scotland Act, and the Hansard debates on the relevant sections and Schedules of the Scotland ACt, do not permit it.
If only those involved in our political discourse – from journalists through to bloggers – engaged with the legal and constitutional framework we would have a better informed electorate who could properly test the candidates and the leaders. But knowledge and understanding is often too much to ask.
Scott
#20 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 21, 2011 - 9:29 pm
Thanks for the links. LPW’s take on the subject seems to be basically a much more detailed and informed version of my own below, namely that while independence itself would be outwith the competence of the Parliament, it would seem that both legally and practically blocking a referendum commanding the support of the majority of the Parliament would be extremely contentious.
#21 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 21, 2011 - 9:32 pm
(Not that any of this actually has anything to do with what we were discussing anyway, which was whether the prospect of a referendum would be a vote-winner for Labour in the next two weeks…)
#22 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 21, 2011 - 9:06 pm
Never mind – I found this:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/salmond-shelves-plans-for-referendum-on-uk-break-up-1.1052924
which is presumably what you’re referring to, but it’s vague in the extreme. I don’t know of any specific bar that there would be to Scotland’s government conducting a referendum in order to determine the people’s will on any given subject. Whether acting on the result would be within their authority is another matter, but the mere holding of a referendum would certainly seem to be permissible.
(And even if it technically wasn’t on account of some Scotland Act small print, it would as I’ve said take a very brave PO to obstruct the wishes of the electorate. Such an event would surely only lead to a huge groundswell of SNP support.)
#23 by James on April 21, 2011 - 1:23 pm
Yup, Ipsos Mori prompt people – who are you voting for with your second vote: Labour, SNP, Tories or Lib Dems (randomised, I think), or Other. If you say Other, they don’t even prompt for us there.
It’s a daft system, it’s not how the ballot paper works, and that’s why I thought we’d be down in this poll. Greens on 6% with Ipsos Mori is about 8% or 9% with YouGov. Suppose we’ll see if that holds by Sunday.
#24 by Scott on April 21, 2011 - 1:24 pm
The other interesting thing is that there are only five or six ‘political’ news days left before polling day– politics will, by and large, be dumped over the two long weekends. It leaves Labour a very small window of opportunity to sell anything new and the Nats will probably just keep quiet and sit tight hoping not to make any last minute howlers.
#25 by Ezio on April 21, 2011 - 1:36 pm
Remember we still have two TV debates just days before the election. Clear potential for a ‘gamechanging’ moment or two.
#26 by Catherine on April 21, 2011 - 1:48 pm
Have to say as a Labour supporter I thought I was going throw up when I saw this on Newsnight last night. It’s not the win, which I expected six months ago, it’s the swing. Very nervous now. Jeff, any idea what seats are vulnerable on your model. Just to depress me even further. Thanks.
#27 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 1:52 pm
No worries Catherine, will do (will add an update to the post itself).
Remember there is usually an incumbency factor of a few percent so some seats that’ll go per this poll will probably stay red (but then SNP may take an extra regional seat so overall result may still apply).
Out of interest, what will be your biggest disappointment if Labour do lose? Which policy area/factor? (I don’t think I’d have asked if the poll hadn’t been so disappointing to be gag-inducing…!)
#28 by Catherine on April 21, 2011 - 2:06 pm
Maybe sounded a bit dramatic but it’s the size of the task after the election and the in-party fighting afterwards that will be hard to stomach.
As for policy, as someone about to start teacher training in Scotland, it’s the council tax freeze. It’s a regressive policy made more regress
#29 by Catherine on April 21, 2011 - 2:12 pm
regressive (computer problems). It makes my employment prospects a lot worse after probation. I actually put off teacher training in hope of a Labour government which would end council tax freeze. Unfortunately Labour then ditched that policy, but even still I am very depressed by the idea of the freeze for five years.
#30 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 2:13 pm
Thanks. I agree Council Tax isn’t working right and constant freezes are of course not the answer as inflation alone makes them unsustainable.
I do hope all parties, whatever the make-up of the Parliament, can have a marathon debate on this one and come up with something brave and better.
#31 by Catherine on April 21, 2011 - 2:34 pm
Agreed. A solution is needed desperately. I believe that if Labou were able to find a solution for local government funding they would win this election. But they didn’t and instead adopted a policy of council tax freeze, all due to a bare policy cupboard, which in turn denied them significant campaigning ammo and a clear dividing line with the SNP.
Btw love the blog, even if I do think you are big bunch of Nats! 😉
#32 by James on April 21, 2011 - 2:35 pm
Me no Nat. Me Green.
#33 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 2:50 pm
Whoops, just saw the most recent comment so deleted my one.
I am a Nat, but a closet one, don’t tell anyone. (I’m Green really James, honest)
#34 by Malc on April 21, 2011 - 2:54 pm
And I’m apparently a closet Tory… though that’s not really true. We do try to be as balanced as we can be when it comes to figures though… 🙂
#35 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 21, 2011 - 8:20 pm
Given the Unionist parties’ staunch opposition to LIT, the Council Tax freeze is inevitable, because the alternative is worse. Ordinary families desperately need SOMETHING in the household budget that isn’t rocketing in price, as fuel and food and utilities run out of control, and while a Council Tax freeze is a blunt instrument there are no other viable options. Labour have spent the last four years promising to come up with one, and after all that time racking the peanut-rattling-around-an-aircraft-hangar that passes for Andy Kerr’s brain all they could come up with was a weak copy of the SNP’s stopgap policy.
(Personally I favour the Green policy of Land Value Tax rather than the SNP’s local income tax, but I think LVT is still far too radically left-wing for even a nation that still likes to think of itself as basically socialist to stomach.)
As for teachers, Iain Gray admitted on TV last week that Labour now couldn’t afford to reinstate the 3000 teachers he claimed the SNP had lost – bizarrely, he basically said that if he’d been First Minister they wouldn’t have lost their jobs in the last couple of years, but that they would now. So I wouldn’t be too upset on that score if I were you, should the polls turn out accurate. But aren’t teacher losses inevitable due to falling school rolls?
#36 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 21, 2011 - 8:22 pm
What I’d love to see, though, would be an SNP win but needing the Greens for a majority, and the Greens holding out for LVT as the price of coalition. A fair, progressive, redistributive system of council funding AND a referendum on independence? What a day that would be.
#37 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 8:51 pm
Amen Reverend, Amen.
#38 by Ewan Dow on April 21, 2011 - 1:50 pm
Scott makes an excellent point that seems to be forgotten by most folk looking at how long to polling day (and I’ll put my hand up here as a SNP organiser and candidate who had scheduled canvassing in for next Friday – oops!)
In reality we’re about to hit the Easter weekend when some folks will be in a brief holiday mood and I presume the Network broadcast media will be in English bank holiday mode on Monday so reduced Scottish coverage.
The same is likely to be true of BBC and STV the following weekend with another bank holiday on the Monday and the joyous nuptials on the Friday before.
If that’s the case and taking Reporting Scotland as an example then there’s only tonight and tomorrow, three evenings next week and two evenings in polling week for Parties to get messages across. Seven opportunities in total.
The window for Labour to change tack in the election is very narrow indeed and if our reading of folks on the doorsteps is correct – they are voting for Scotland’s next government, not to send messages to London – then Labour are leaving it far too late to come up with a credible strategy to match the SNP’s.
The SNP just need to keep working hard on the campaign we already have – Labour need a massive game changer and I’m doubtful the dubious talents of Iain Gray’s team have it.
#39 by Indy on April 21, 2011 - 2:06 pm
Was just going to make exactly the same point as Euan. Once you take into account the easter break and royal wedding it’s more like a week of campaigning left than two. We just need to stay focussed and keep the momentum going.
#40 by Keith Roberts on April 21, 2011 - 2:13 pm
Excellent post as usual Jeff, but did I really see the words ‘inspire’ and ‘labour’ in the same sentence? No wonder you went for the attack option.
I see that Brian Taylor has finally had to grudgingly admit that this poll exists, whilst the BBC still does its best to ignore it. What do we have to do to get an impartial media?
Anyway maybe if the bulk of their front bench depart us Labour will finally realise that they have to up the ante if they are to compete – but do they have the wherewithal to do that, or are they facing a long period in the wilderness?
Must be good news for the Greens also and your final scenario would I think recieve some approval. Going to be a fun two weeks methinks.
#41 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 2:33 pm
Very kind Keith.
On that ‘inspire’ thing, what I don’t get is this – all of these politicos must watch the West Wing and they must see that a flourish of Sorkin’s pen is what makes Bartlett’s team so appealing. Why do none of the parties try to arrange a set piece speech or event for the leader to ‘open their mouths and lift houses off of grounds’? Why do they meekly go along with the Gordon Brewer and Bernard Ponsonby runaround?
Is it too late for a rally? A real political rally? Could be Gray’s last chance in truth.
#42 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 21, 2011 - 8:26 pm
Iain Gray trying to set people afire with explosive rhetoric would be a bit like Michael McIntyre’s Comedy Roadshow hiring the Rev IM Jolly as the warmup man…
#43 by douglas clark on April 21, 2011 - 2:14 pm
Jeff, well done for getting that analysis up so quickly. To be honest I also think this poll is possibly / probably an outlier.
Which will be a shame, as I just bet a few quid at 2:00am on Iain Grey losing his seat. More out of patrizanship than sense, no doubt!
Seems that other commentators are saying that Ipsos/MORI tended to overestimate the SNP vote in earlier elections. Do you have a view on how good they are?
#44 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 2:30 pm
Thanks, I just have to update the poll and it spits it all out for me so not difficult (thankfully!)
What odds did you get on the SNP to win East Lothian. I don’t think it’s the worst bet in the world. If Iain Gray is sinking the Labour campaign then where else to bet against the party?
I’m afraid I don’t really know how good Mori are in relation to other pollsters. Worth some analysis but I’d reckon it’s something that someone has a good grasp of elsewhere.
#45 by douglas clark on April 21, 2011 - 2:53 pm
Jeff,
It was the surrounding analysis that I was impressed with!
The bet was actually on David Berry the SNP candidate to win.
I got 7/1 on Paddypower. IIRC Iain Grey was sitting @ 1/25 but it was very late. David Berry is now down to 5/4 though Grey is still sitting at 1/12.
#46 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 3:03 pm
Oh, in that case, all me then. Shucks…
7/1 isn’t so bad. I would have hoped longer odds for you in EL of all places though.
Any odds on DFM Patrick Harvie yet?
#47 by Malc on April 21, 2011 - 4:23 pm
My cat is called Mori. Its short for Moriarty. He could probably do an opinion poll that would have the election called as radically as this poll suggests.
True story. My having a cat called Moriarty. Perhaps not the bit about him polling.
#48 by douglas clark on April 21, 2011 - 3:08 pm
“Any odds on DFM Patrick Harvie yet?”
Nicola would not be a happy MSP if that happened!
#49 by holyroodpatter on April 21, 2011 - 4:32 pm
A question for Catherine (which i will ask of education spokespeople at a hustings this evening) as an undergraduate, I feel worried about my job prospects, as do all students,
chemistry students arent guarenteed a job, nor are history students, nor journalism, why should money thats giving the average punter more money in the pocket be used to fund those coming out of a course?
#50 by Catherine on April 21, 2011 - 5:45 pm
Before I attempt to answer that question can I clarify whether this question is about teaching graduates and the probationer year system or about graduate unemployment in general? Thanks.
#51 by Michael on April 21, 2011 - 5:12 pm
Well, unlike the rest of you I have been predicting a big SNP win for quite some time. Labour support was clearly hugely over estimated in previous polls and I have to say I couldn’t see which constituencies they could appeal to in order to be re-elected. You need to identify who has done badly out of the SNP and who would gain by a Labour victory to work out how a Labour victory could be managed. I could never see who those groups might be. The other missing element from most analyses seems to me to have been the constitutional regressiveness of putting Labour back in. There has not been in recent times an occasion when a hurdle has been breached on the road to greater self-determination when voters have decided to return to a more constitutionally conservative position. Electing the SNP I would argue was a stage in that move towards further ‘independence’. This site is always talking up the Greens but I think yoiu exaggerate their potential. My forecast is for 2 MSPs – one Lothian, one Glasgow and maybe as an outside chance Highlands. But definitely not NE, MS&F, West, Central or S. My feeling about Harvie is not only that he would be useless as DFM but that the Greens absurd tax policies rule them out of any serious debate at present. On a personality level **** ********************************* ****** (Ed: that’s just unnecessarily spiteful, and not true). Finally the poster who says the SNP need to sit back and be quiet in order to win this campaign is clearly out of touch with the ways in which the SNP are running their operation. In my view the heavy weapons have still to come out and they can’t even have begun to spend their massive advertisng budget. This is only the start. I have said all along that this is a hsitory making election and I still believe I will be proved right in that assessment.
#52 by Michael on April 21, 2011 - 5:45 pm
Oh well, each to his own. Personally I find Harvie to be rather dislikeable but I do understand that’s a personal view. On a campaigning level I’m getting a bit fed up with the stuck record ‘2nd vote’ lie. In 12 years you’d think they could have come up with something new.
#53 by Indy on April 21, 2011 - 6:01 pm
I don’t know who said that the SNP need to sit back and be quiet – but we do need to stick to the gameplan. This election is not won yet so we need to stay focussed and not get ahead of ourselves.
#54 by Hamish on April 21, 2011 - 6:34 pm
Fascinating article. It is impressive that you created a powerful and flexible model in the first place which allows you to deduce the detailed implications of successive polls as they appear. (Not disparaging the meticulous work that you will have to put in each time.)
[BTW You have the totals for Tories and Lib-Dems swopped.
Please correct before I capture this article for future reference.]
#55 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 8:22 pm
Thanks Hamish, I’ve swapped the numbers around. I guess I can’t tell Lib Dems and Tories apart these days.
#56 by Colin on April 21, 2011 - 7:35 pm
It would appear that Labour have been taking canvassers out of swing seats and putting them into seats they are trying to hold. A couple of sources for this; twitter, The Scotsman and Newsnet Scotland.
That might make them hold some more seats (if this poll is accurate) but it will certainly prevent them from gaining anything.
#57 by Steve on April 21, 2011 - 7:45 pm
I’d just like to make the point that yesterday I Jeff shot me down for suggesting Local Income Tax was still a goer. Today we are looking at a potential majority in the Scottish Parliament for parties in favour of a Local Income Tax.
I hope we get that majority, and I hope we get legislation on that tax.
If we get even one SSP MSP then I expect them to introduce legislation to scrap the council tax and replace it with LIT. Will the supposed LIT supporting parties be able to vote against it and keep face?
#58 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 8:21 pm
I’m sorry but that is simply not the case. The SNP may have been in favour of LIT in their 2007 manifesto but show me where they are proposing it in their manifesto for this coming term? They are not, and if we are serious about parliamentary democracies and mandates then we cannot allow parties to make it up as they to along.
An SNP Government has the mandate to implement a 5 year C Tax freeze or cede the issue to a party’s policy that it forms a coalition with. That, as far as I can see and in practical terms, rules out LIT.
#59 by Ewan Dow on April 21, 2011 - 8:50 pm
From the SNP manifesto: “Over the period of the next Parliament we will consult with others to produce a fairer system based on ability to pay to replace the Council Tax and we will put this to the people at the next election, by which time Scotland will have more powers over income tax.”
Now unless someone comes up with another system of local government income based on ability to pay over the next 5 years (and it may happen I suppose) that seems a pretty clear nod in the direction of LIT being worked on and presented to people in 2016.
#60 by Jeff on April 21, 2011 - 8:55 pm
Yes, I agree, the key point being “in 2016”. The policy is to put a proposal to the people in 2016, that’s quite different to LIT being pushed through Parliament in this coming term.
I’m not picking out the SNP here, it’s something that concerns me at Westminster too. We seem to have moved away from an election campaign being a time when people promise to do something and then spend the next 4-5 years doing it to a system where politicians say anything to get into Parliament, do what they want without having checked with the public and then hoping they’ll get away with it at the next election.
But it’s up to that public to what extent they are willing to put up with it and if they are going to be largely indifferent, as we tend to be either side of the border, then no wonder the politicians keep having a go at it. That said, there is no evidence that the SNP will push on with LIT in the next 5years and they remained commendablyt faithful to their manifesto in the past four years which, I think, is the main reason they are getting another shot from a fortnight hence.
#61 by douglas clark on April 21, 2011 - 9:24 pm
Jeff,
What it appears to me they are committing themselves to is examining the idea to see if they can make it work, within the next term. It isn’t a hugely major manifesto commitment but it does indicate the path they wish to proceed along. Not everything can be done in a five year term. If they spent money on this research could they not have been criticised for spending money they hadn’t bargained for?
#62 by mav on April 21, 2011 - 11:35 pm
jeff,
i think you are looking at how voters ‘break’ the wrong way round. To me, people vote for the their 1st choice party with their 2nd vote, its the first that can vary. Eg Lib Dems don’t break Tory, Tories vote Lib Dem & Labour don’t break Green with their 2nd vote, rather Greens vote Labour with their first vote as they have no Greens to vote for. Interesting that the poll suggests that alll SSP voters are going SNP with their first vote though. I thought they were against the status quo on principle.
#63 by James on April 22, 2011 - 12:02 am
Exactly (plus the tacticals).
#64 by Steve on April 22, 2011 - 12:26 am
I agree with your point, you’ve got it the right way round. Not surprising to me that SSP voters vote SNP and not Labour since SNP are more anti nuclear, were anti Iraq war, favour progressive taxation, made prescription charges free and favour independence. That’s a lot in common with the SSP.
I’m sure SSP activists see the SNP as “tartan tories”, but the wider pool of SSP voters are much more comfortable supporting the SNP since they are the most left wing of the big four in Scotland.
#65 by James on April 22, 2011 - 6:37 am
{citation required}
“progressive taxation”? The CT freeze directly benefits the rich most, and directly harms the poor most. Iraq and Trident don’t get decided at Holyrood. Free prescription charges I support but it’s hardly a left position. Independence I also support but it’s not left either.
#66 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 22, 2011 - 7:06 am
http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010
Has the SNP as the only one of the four that’s left of centre at all.
#67 by James on April 22, 2011 - 7:19 am
Aye, but I’m not seeing the policies to back their claim up. The SNP have done nothing tangible on poverty and inequality that I’ve seen since 2007.
#68 by Rev. S. Campbell on April 22, 2011 - 7:39 am
Things like the CT freeze and the abolishing of prescription charges have a disproportionately beneficial effect on people on low incomes – especially the working poor – because those costs represent a far higher proportion of their resources. They are unquestionably left-wing policies, and the SNP’s desire to abolish CT entirely and replace it with something fairer and more redistributive certainly is.
I wouldn’t claim the SNP were rampaging all-out socialists by any means, but let’s face it – the question is which of the four parties is the MOST left-wing, and the other three haven’t exactly set the bar very high. The growth in the inequality gap during Labour’s 13 years of power at Westminster is the most shameful of all their legacies.
#69 by Michael on April 22, 2011 - 10:23 am
On Gray to lose E Lothian – it is possible. After all the SNP ‘won’ the seat in the Euro elections. My feeling is that recognition and exposure will save him but many other Labour constituency members will not have those advantages. The next problem facing Labour is how to deal with an influx of inexperienced list MSPs and the loss of long-standing members who aren’t in sensible places on the list. Due principally to Labour’s long held but erroneous view that list seats are second best, i.e. not won according to Westminster rules and therefore of a lower order. SNP faced similar issues after the debacle of the list selections prior to the 2003 election. People will remember that it was her low position on the Lothians list that pushed Margo out of the SNP. Many good quality people didn’t return because they had been placed too low on the list. Labour will also have to find a leader from this group many of whom will not have even been in Parliament before.
#70 by Indy on April 22, 2011 - 12:24 pm
Perhaps James can explain to us simple types what real, as opposed to tokenistic, actions can be taken to tackle poverty and inequality with no real economic powers, no real control over the tax system or the benefits system, with no significant borrwing powers, and with no control over employment policy or the way that childcare is funded.
If the answer is increase income tax I think that speaks for itself.
#71 by steve on April 22, 2011 - 7:03 pm
You could replace council tax with a progressive Local Income Tax of the kind suggested by the SSP.
Although I don’t like the Greens’ Land Value Tax proposals for domestic taxation it is a more progressive option than the current NDR. It’s ironic that the SNP claim they don’t have the powers to do much, but they hardly try. There’s good evidence that where a LVT has been introduced as a replacement for other business taxes it has stimulated economic growth (prevents land banking, encourages optimal use of land etc.)
Presumably the proceeds of that growth can then be used to create jobs and tax revenues etc.
#72 by douglas clark on April 22, 2011 - 5:23 pm
Michael @ 69,
Ré Grey, I was banking on the exposure and recognition working against him!
On the more serious point about a inexperienced opposition, if that is how it does work out, would it not be the ideal time to put through the Referendum enabling legislation, couched in broad enough terms that the date is at the discretion of the First Minister? Indeed an early Referendum itself might be our best chance to win it.
OK, too many chickens counted….
#73 by Jock Mad McMad on April 22, 2011 - 7:04 pm
There are a couple of points to make:
1. Scotland (and there for our parliament) is a representative and not a parliamentary democracy and that for Westminster to take on any part of the Union Treaty that was preserved ‘for all time’ using English Parliamentary precedence as its basis is contrary to said treaty and the term for ‘all time’ was established to mean just that in a judgement by the Lord President of the Court of Session and conceded by the Advocate General.
2. Sovereignty lies with the people of Scotland and not the crown or parliament
3. Since the people of Scotland are sovereign and not Westminster – if we, the people, decided to become independent there is nothing Westminster can do about it no matter what is stated in the Scotland Bill. A point made by no less a person than Lord Forsyth on numerous occasion, most recently is now stating that the proposed Scotland Act Amendment Bill will be the midwife of Scottish independence.
What the Scottish electorate across all parties wants is full fiscal autonomy, not the Calman fudge. The only party likely to deliver is the SNP. Scottish Labour MP’s are now looking for wiggle room to get out of supporting the bill that Wendy and Brown created.
I agree with Lord Forsyth – even if he is a Tory – Cameron’s Bill will wreck what is left of the ‘Union’ and not be the ‘final nail in the SNP coffin’ that devolution, etc was supposed to be.
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