Glasgow, the reddest of red regions and the primary base of Labour resources, home to one Parliament co-convener, the Deputy First Minister and Smeato. The Glasgow Airport hero might not be standing in this election but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be instances of people ‘getting banjoed’ on May 6th either in celebration or defeat, (but both metaphorically, of course).

Anyway, obligatory preamble over, let’s get a few easy ones out of the way first:

Glasgow Anniesland/Maryhill & Springburn/Pollok/Provan/Rutherglen/Shettleston – I don’t care what the SNP canvass returns say or what ‘amazing feedback we’re seeing on the streets’, these are all easy Labour holds. Welcome back to Holyrood Bill Butler, Patricia Ferguson, Johann Lamont, Paul Martin, James Kelly & Frank McAveety.

So, where does that leave us:

Glasgow Cathcart – I must admit that I did not realise that this seat is as close as it is between incumbent Charlie Gordon (Labour) and challenger James Dornan (SNP). The 2007 majority was 2,189 which was reduced to 1,852 after boundary changes, that’s on a turnout of c22,000. Putting the voteshare for SNP and Labour on a level pegging actually increases the forecast winning majority to 2,222, due to the fact that the SNP won slightly more votes than Labour overall in 2007. The SNP will be in with a shout of taking this if they continue to creep up in the polls but I don’t see this being within the Nats’ reach this time. Labour hold – Charlie Gordon

Glasgow Kelvin – In many ways it is a real shame that the Greens have decided not to stand in this constituency as they pulled off an impressive 3rd place in 2007 and if they do aspire to becoming a major party (and getting invited along to leader debates) then they need to start bedding in some 3rd place and 2nd place finishes to show they are going places. I suppose the Greens know better than any of us that money doesn’t grow on trees and the party can’t afford lost deposit after lost deposit. The upside of all of this, of course, is that the challenge to Labour’s dominance of this constituency is not as split as it might have otherwise been. Sandra White has a real chance for the SNP against Pauline McNeill who has been MSP here for 12 years. So much depends on where the 5,700 votes for the Lib Dems and Greens will fall and what the decisive issues will be for those people from prior year. Nuclear power may even prove to be the key dividing line which one would think would fall in the SNP’s favour.

I really am quite torn so I shall follow what my model is saying and push out an argument that a personal vote for the incumbent will be a factor, just for good measure. Labour hold – Pauline McNeill

Glasgow Southside – If the SNP lose this seat, they surely will not win the most number of seats in Scotland. That is not to say that if they ‘do’ win the seat, that they will emerge as the largest party but there is no doubt that this is a key contest. Further evidence comes in the shape of The Straight Choice as Glasgow Southside is one of the few Scottish constituencies that has seen a real blitz of campaign leaflets over the past week or two. I get the impression that Labour challenger Stephen Curran is throwing himself into this contest with gusto but if there is any replacement for being the Deputy First Minister then it is surely to be seen as competent, efficient, likeable and human, qualities that Nicola Sturgeon has in spades. By a couple of thousands votes, I have this down as a comfortable SNP Hold – Nicola Sturgeon

So, the constituency result looks set to be SNP – 1, Labour – 8 (with +/- 1 potential for both figures)

Before ploughing on to work out the regional seats, it is worth considering the Socialists and George Galloway individually, as applying national trends does not really apply to these region-specific considerations.

It is a subjective call at this stage really and he may well prove to be the West’s Margo MacDonald but, for me, George Galloway will not win a seat at Holyrood. The main factor that results in that prediction is the mere fact that George has been gallivanting around anywhere but Glasgow for the past four years so it seems a bit churlish of the man to expect to be able to walk into a cushy job in the Scottish Parliament after being largely rebuffed everywhere else. George is a great orator and a great showman, but I suspect his contribution at the Scottish Parliament in terms of substance would be minimal, and the people of Glasgow will by and large realise that when considering who to vote for. Indeed, the lack of party machine may even mean that George barely registers in voters’ minds.

For the Scottish Socialist Party, despite Tommy Sheridan not standing, I suspect that the presence of George Galloway will hamper their voteshare to the extent that Frances Curran will miss out on a seat once more. The SSP finished behind the BNP, the SCCUP, the Scottish Christians, Socialist Labour and Christian Peoples party last time. They will improve on that lowly position, but I don’t see them catapulting themselves into Holyrood this year I’m afraid.

Based on a projected national voteshare of Lab – 35%, SNP – 35%, Con – 14%, LD – 8% & Green – 5%, the result that I do expect is the following:

1 – SNP (Humza Yousaf)
2 – SNP (Bob Doris)
3 – SNP (Sandra White)
4 – Con (Ruth Davidson)
5 – Grn (Patrick Harvie)
6 – SNP (Sid Khan)
7 – Labour (Hanzala Malik)

8 – SNP (James Dornan)

NB – SNP miss out on the 7th seat by 17 votes, the Lib Dems miss out on the 7th seat by 53 votes.

That 7th seat is probably not the result that many were expecting, particularly those of the staunch belief that Labour just don’t win list MSPs in Glasgow, so allow me to explain.

The region of Glasgow has one less seat this time around after the boundary changes, so the Labour vote is being divided by 9 in the d’hondt allocation (8 FPTP wins + 1) rather than the 10 from 2007. This has the effect of increasing their ‘votes/divisor’ figure by around 1,000 which is a significant amount when it comes to the dogfight for the 7th seat.

Further to this, the Lib Dem vote has collapsed and as a result the Labour regional voteshare has increased higher than it was in 2010. The SNP voteshare has increased higher than 2010 also but there is a watermark at which, in the absence of a meaningful challenge from a third party, that Labour will start taking regional seats. That watermark appears to be 35% national voteshare.

Now, I am just faithfully following what the polls are saying here and my personal view is that, after three terms with zero Glasgow list Labour MSPs, there will be far too many Labour voters giving their second votes to George Galloway, Socialists, Greens and even the SNP for Labour to get a look-in on this seventh seat but, well, all I’m saying is don’t be too surprised if a dramatic snatching of that last spot is the difference between who is the largest party at Holyrood.

Tactical voting considerations

For the SNP, like so many other regions now that they are either the incumbents or the main challengers, there are none. Irrespective of what constituency a Glasgow voter is in, 1st vote – SNP and 2nd vote – SNP are the only options if the primary objectives for this election are to see the SNP emerge as the largest party and Alex Salmond emerge as First Minister.

For the Greens, it is quite clear that the extent of their ambitions is 1 MSP from this region, unless something really dramatic happens in the national polls. It is also clear that Labour winning all FPTP seats will reduce Patrick Harvie’s chances of being re-elected so a first vote for the SNP should be considered in Southside, Kelvin and perhaps even Cathcart.

The primary tactical voting consideration for the Greens though is to try to induce would-be Labour voters to vote Green in order to reduce the SNP’s chances of maximising its number of regional MSPs here. Just don’t tell any Glaswegians that, actually, there is a chance of a Labour list MSP here after all!

(Consolidated results to follow)