After I wrote this post rounding up our “Region Watch” series, I copped a bit of flak on Twitter for my projections of female representation at Holyrood after May’s election. Â Apparently I was too positive. Â I actually spotted I’d made a mistake, and the numbers we projected would make 47 female MSPs and not 46 (as I said in the post). Â Which would make me even more positive. Â Cue even more scepticism I imagine. Â So I thought I’d delve into the numbers a bit more. Â Obviously, this is subject to the usual caveats surrounding opinion polls – so keep that in mind.
First, a bit of background.
In 1999, there were 48 female MSPs (37.2%). Â That rose to 51 (39.5%) in 2003 before taking a dramatic tumble to 43 – 33.3% – in 2007. Â With the passing of the SNP’s Bashir Ahmad – the only (EDIT ethnic-minority) “non-white” MSP Holyrood has seen – and his replacement as an MSP by Anne McLaughlin, the total at Holyrood’s dissolution stood at 44 (34.1%). Â For more analysis and division by party, see this article in Scottish Affairs (pdf). Â 50% of the seats at Holyrood is, for the sake of clarity, 65.
And so to 2011. Â The Guardian reports that only 28% of all candidates for the election in May will be women which, according to both The Hansard Society and the Centre for Women and Democracy, means there will be fewer women elected to Holyrood than in 2007. Â And yet, from our analysis (and by our, I mean Jeff and I – James and Kate should be exonerated from any of the following – though Kate ran numbers previously and ended up with 43) we have a rise – a small one, but a rise nonetheless – in female representation, from the 43 women elected in 2007 to 47 now.
Here’s where we’ve projected them to come from:
Highlands & Islands (3)
0 constituencies – which isn’t a surprise, since most have never had a female MP never mind a female MSP
3 list MSPs: Rhoda Grant (Lab – seat #2), Eleanor Scott (Grn – #4) and Mary Scanlon (Con – #5)
North-East Scotland (5)
1 constituency: Shona Robison (SNP – Dundee City East)
4 list: Jenny Marra(Lab – #3) Nanette Milne (Con -#4) Lesley McMahon (Lab – #5) Maureen Watt (SNP – #6)
Lothian (8)
3 constituencies: Sarah Boyack (Lab – Edin Central), Margaret Smith (LD – Edin West), Mary Mulligan (Lab – Linlithgow)
5 list:Â Fiona Hyslop (SNP #2) Shirley-Anne Somerville (SNP #3) Alison Johnstone (Grn #4) Margo MacDonald (Ind #5) Angela Constance (SNP #6)
Mid-Scotland & Fife (7)
4 constituencies: Helen Eadie (Lab – Cowdenbeath), Marlyn Livingstone (Lab – Kircaldy), Tricia Marwick (SNP – Mid-Fife & Glenrothes), Roseanna Cunningham (SNP – Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)
3 list: Elizabeth Smith (Con #2) Claire Baker (Lab #4) Annabelle Ewing (SNP #7)
West Scotland (4)
2 constituencies: Irene Oldfather (Lab – Cunninghame South), Jackie Baillie (Lab – Dumbarton)
2 list: Annabel Goldie (Con #2) Fiona McLeod (SNP #5)
Central Scotland (7)
3 constituencies: Elaine Smith (Lab – Coatbridge & Chryston), Cathy Craigie (Lab – Cumbernauld & Kilsyth), Cathy Peattie (Lab – Falkirk East)
4 list: Linda Fabiani (SNP #2) Margaret Mitchell (Con #3) Siobhan McMahon (Lab #5) Christina McKelvie (SNP #6)
South Scotland (7)
3 constituencies: Karen Gillon (Lab -Â Clydesdale), Gillian Dykes (Con – Dumfriesshire), Christine Grahame (SNP – Tweeddale & Lauderdale)
4 list: Aileen Campbell (SNP #1), Elaine Murray (Lab #2), Claudia Beamish (Lab #5), Joan McAlpine (SNP #6)
Glasgow (6)
4 constituencies: Pauline McNeill (Lab – Kelvin), Patricia Ferguson (Lab – Maryhill & Springburn), Johann Lamont (Lab – Pollock), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP – Southside)
2 list: Sandra White (SNP #3) Ruth Davidson (Con #4)
That makes 47 – and you can see the regional variations above without the need for me to point out the glaringly obvious bias in favour of male MSPs in H&I and West. Â Its perhaps not fair to single them out, since no region has a particularly good record here. Â The exception is perhaps Lothian, where 50% of the MSPs returned in our analysis would be women (and see below for potential increase).
Of course there could be more or there could be fewer than I’ve outlined above. Â A lot of the list seats (where the majority of the female candidates are) depend on the outcome of some marginal seats – and the outcome of those depends entirely on how people vote on the day. Â Here’s a few that might have an impact:
Western Isles – Jeff projected Donald Crichton would win this for Labour over the SNP’s Alasdair Allan. Â I think he’s wrong – but in the final party mark-up, it doesn’t matter, since Labour would take a list seat at the SNP’s expense. Â But on gender, it does, since next on Labour’s list is a woman – Linda Stewart – which would add one to the tally above.
Aberdeenshire South & North Kincardine – I went for John Sleigh of the Lib Dems here, but if the SNP’s Maureen Watt can win it, that’d free up a list seat for the Lib Dems – which would go to Alison McInnes. Â Add one more (for best case scenario).
Almond Valley – If Angela Constance won here (or, less likely but still plausible, if Shirley-Anne Somerville won in Edinburgh Northern & Leith) she would beat out a male Labour candidate.  Labour would likely win a list seat, replacing their male constituency winner with a female list MSP (Kezia Dugdale).
Airdrie & Shotts – Alex Neil was projected to pick this up for the SNP, but if Karen Whitefield held on, Alex Neil would be returned on the list, with Labour losing a list seat held by a male. Â So there’s potential here for a net female gain as well.
If all four of those go against our projections, then we could be looking at 51 female MSPs, taking us back up to 2003 levels (which, granted, is still only 39.5% of the seats). Â However, I can find one example of it going the other way:
South of Scotland – Two female candidates fighting out Dumfriesshire, which is notionally Conservative.  If they hold on (as we currently project) then Gillian Dykes is the constituency MSP and her opponent, Elaine Murray, is returned on the list.  If the positions are reversed in Dumfriesshire, the Conservatives do win the list seat to compensate for their constituency loss, but the seat is taken not by Gillian Dykes but by Derek Brownlee – which would mean a net -1 for women at Holyrood.
It is a complex business working this out, and fine margins exist everywhere. Â With the exceptions of Sarah Boyack, whose constituency is notionally Lib Dem, Nicola Sturgeon (notionally Labour seat), Christine Grahame, who has notionally inherited the seat from the Lib Dems, and the aforementioned Dumfriesshire seat, most of the seats which currently have female MSPs are relatively safe. Â Thus I expect most of those will be returned to Holyrood – which means it all comes down to the list as to whether more or fewer female MSPs than 2007 are returned.
While this is nowhere near the parity expected of the “new politics” in 1999 (where has that disappeared to, by the way?) nor anything to get excited about, I’m more optimistic than the Guardian and others about the outcome in this respect. Â And I never thought the words “Malc” and “optimistic” actually went in the same sentence.
#1 by Geraint on April 12, 2011 - 9:18 am
Has anyone calculated the gender balance across Scottish councils, elected by STV? I would expect a better balance when decisions about which candidates to favour are put in the hands of voters instead of parties. It would be interesting to know if the statistics support this.
#2 by Geraint on April 12, 2011 - 1:32 pm
Replying to myself (sorry!) but ithe electoral reform society have compiled figures for councils:
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/downloads/Women%20on%20Scottish%20councils%20.pdf
#3 by GMcM on April 12, 2011 - 9:46 am
Sorry Malc but I have to take issue with your comment regarding ethnic minorities.
The Scottish Parliament has ALWAYS had ethnic minorties represented. If you mean Mr Ahmad was the first of an Asian ethnicity to be elected that’s fine, however there have been many MSPs of Irish descent.
It’s quite insulting to those of Irish descent not to be recognised.
#4 by James on April 12, 2011 - 10:12 am
Don’t forget the English! (stands back)
#5 by Jeff on April 12, 2011 - 10:12 am
I suppose you are technically correct Gerard but I think “insulting” is a bit strong. Strictly speaking I am of Irish descent but I can’t say this came close to crossing my mind.
Rightly or wrongly, it’s pretty clear that most people consider ‘ethnic minorities’ to be those groups that are chronically under-represented and often mis-represented in the seats of power.
I would exclude those of Irish descent from that definition.
Anyway, Malc’s post is clearly about female representation so don’t want to wander too far off topic.
#6 by Malc on April 12, 2011 - 12:34 pm
Groan. As Jeff says below, I was genuinely using a term that I thought most understood to mean “non-white”. I take the point that we’re all ethnic minorities… but that isn’t what the post is about.
#7 by The Burd on April 12, 2011 - 3:45 pm
Yes we are – but as someone started this thread… there is a difference between assimilated minorities as those of Irish descent clearly are, and those who have yet to assimilate but are in the melting pot, ie black and Asian minorities. Happy to punt on this one all day – was my specialist subject in my history degree!
And actually, if someone is 1st or at a push 2nd generation Irish, then I think they can still refer to themselves as an ethnic minority. Anyone with 3rd generation and beyond, might have antecedents and family and cultural traditions that are still important to them, but to refer to themselves as an ethnic minority is fairly insulting to the country/countries in which they and their parents were born in.
Folk thirling themselves to their Irish descent in this country is part of a much bigger, wider problem. Maybe if we could just all accept we are mongrels with bits of lots of backgrounds in us, but accept our primary ethnicity then we’d get on better.
Is that Malc ducking for cover? Oh good,…. sorry couldn’t resist this one?!
#8 by Malc on April 12, 2011 - 10:35 pm
Malc just isn’t rising to the bait…
#9 by Kate on April 12, 2011 - 11:20 am
And Italian descent – Linda Fabiani comes to mind here. But not worth squabbling over. The point is we need a Parly that is the sum of all our pairts to be truly representative!
Have been trying to work out why I was light on the numbers, for Malc’s stack up well. My post was earlier, too early possibly, and I used the polls that were around at the time, and they were definitely more Labour dominated as well as not yet heralding the Lib Dem demise. That shaved off a few SNP list MSPs who were women.
But not complaining! An improvement would be good but at this rate of incremental change it will take us until when exactly to get a 50-50 balance?!
#10 by Indy on April 12, 2011 - 11:32 am
Maybe instead of saying ethnic minority you should just say not white. Less politically correct perhaps but I don’t think Bashir would have been bothered, nor Humza or Sid.
#11 by Malc on April 12, 2011 - 12:32 pm
Agreed. I’ll change it.
#12 by An Duine Gruamach on April 12, 2011 - 11:43 am
And “Tymkewycz” is a Perthshire name, no?
#13 by Indy on April 12, 2011 - 12:04 pm
Lol.
#14 by Danny1995 on April 12, 2011 - 1:28 pm
I fail to see why it matters.
#15 by Daniel J on April 12, 2011 - 2:30 pm
I doubt that Jon Sleigh will win or that Alison McInnes getting in on the list is a given!
Still good post.
#16 by GMcM on April 12, 2011 - 2:43 pm
Sorry for taking the posts off-track Malc.
Jeff, you’re right ‘insulting’ is too strong a word to be used there so apologies all round.
The point you make on female representation is spot on. Labour had a twinning policy in 1999 which gave almost 50/50 in male/female candidate numbers. That policy has fallen and female numbers have dwindled to some extent. It’s a problem for all parties and it’s great that you’re highlighting it.
#17 by mav on April 12, 2011 - 9:11 pm
I think the 28% figure the Guardian quote is misleading. I’ve not checked exactly how many, but a quick glance at the lists suggests that the vast majority of BNP/Christian/solidarity/UKIP/etc candidates are men. Apologies to all the other parties I mentioned for grouping them with the BNP but my point is that the patron saint of political lost causes appears to be male.
(Digressing slightly, but the father of a firend of mine was 10th on the Glasgow list for the christian party last time. I never quite worked out the point of listing more candidates than there are seats! The same friend tells me they believe they can take enough tory/libdem list votes to pinch a highlands seat this time round. I’ve not checked, I suspect they are wrong)
#18 by James on April 12, 2011 - 9:37 pm
Of course, as far as I know only Greens have a constitutional commitment to gender balance when selecting new candidates.
#19 by Danny1995 on April 12, 2011 - 9:53 pm
James the best would be candidate should be elected, not the best would be woman candidate.
And Mav I wouldn’t rule out a christian MSP, with the SCP and CPA standing together, I was looking at Central region and if you combine both their 2007 votes together they don’t need a massive increase.
#20 by mav on April 12, 2011 - 10:13 pm
as I said, I’ve not checked. It didn’t seem likely to me, My atheist tendencies mean I hope not.
#21 by Shuna on April 12, 2011 - 10:19 pm
I suspect there are going to be quite a few ‘Christians’ elected just they have not felt the need to stand for the SCP or CPA, neither of whom will be getting my vote!
#22 by theshooglypeg on April 12, 2011 - 10:36 pm
The best candidates absolutely should be elected, but given that not even a third of candidates are female, we can be fairly sure that there are a lot of able women out there who will not be in Parliament come May. The problem is that not enough women are standing: once they get on the ballot, they have as much chance as men of getting elected.
#23 by Shuna on April 13, 2011 - 10:47 am
on gender balance – interestingly I received my ballot paper this morning for the NEC elections of the Co-operative Party – we are electing one man and one woman. I have a list of men and a seperate list of women which I have to rank in order of preference and the vote will counted by STV.