Mid Scotland & Fife 2007-11 constituency colours

The fourth in our series of examinations of the Scottish Parliament regions, this time I’m in the hotseat and looking at Mid-Scotland and Fife.  Previous posts on Highlands & Islands, North-East Scotland and the Lothians have all been vigorously debated, so I suspect I’ll ruffle a few feathers again.  Here goes (constituencies first):

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane – Tight, very tight.  The profile of an SNP minister who holds the seat against the profile of a former Labour minister who notionally holds the seat.  I’ve been told the word “disgraced” is supposed to precede “former” in the latter’s case (there’s apparently a memo).  But we’re fairer than that here (no mud-slinging from us).  Nevertheless, the mud that has been previously slung, does stick a bit… and leads me to think that the SNP will cling on here… just about.  SNP hold (Keith Brown – returning).

Cowdenbeath – Likely comfortable.   We’re getting into “dyed in the wool” territory here, I imagine. Labour hold (Helen Eadie – returning).

Dunfermline – This is trickier.  Lib Dem held, but boundary changes plus the corresponding seat returned to Labour at Westminster.  I’m really not sure on this one – it probably depends on how much the national LD vote share holds up, but a notional majority of just 77 makes me think it unlikely they’ll hang on. Lab GAIN (Alex Rowley – new face).

Kirkcaldy – A notional majority of over 3,000, I can’t see this being anything other than a Lab hold (Marlyn Livingstone – returning).

Mid-Fife and Glenrothes – This is a seat where I thought the SNP incumbent might be in trouble, but statistically that isn’t the case.  Notionally, they have a majority of over 2,000.  However, the SNP do run the council, and there have been some tough decisions made (which perhaps influenced the outcome of the Glenrothes by-election).  So I expect it to be closer, but the SNP to hang on here.  SNP hold (Tricia Marwick – returning)

North-East Fife – A solid Lib Dem seat, but it is the home of a university and this may adversely affect the party’s popularity here.  If it goes, its a shocker of a night for the Lib Dems, given the notional 4,500 majority.  I can see that halved, but not disappearing entirely.  Surely?  Lib Dem hold (Iain Smith – returning)

Perthshire North – a notional 6,000+ majority for the Cabinet Secretary for Finance. Comfortable hold.  SNP hold (John Swinney – returning)

Perthshire South and Kinross-shire – A narrower notional majority of 1,400 for the SNP to defend, but I think if their national vote holds up, this will remain safe.  I think the Tories will throw a lot at it, and probably run them close, dropping the majority to under 1,000… but the SNP will hang on. SNP hold (Roseanna Cunningham – returning)

Stirling – Here’s a tricky one, and one which a lot of regional seats depend on.  This is notionally Labour (by 300 or so votes) but its held by the SNP.  I have a lot of family in the area, all very impressed with the work Bruce Crawford has done, certainly much more so than the previous MSP and so the incumbency factor may play a part here.  Look for the Tories to try and get a bit closer in third… but I think Bruce hangs on here too.  Just. (notional) SNP GAIN (Bruce Crawford – returning)

With all constituencies accounted for, I make it:

SNP – 5
Labour 3
Lib Dem – 1

Throwing that into my electoral calculator, and using the same methodology as before (opinion polls divided by ratio from 2007) I make the regional seat division to be:

Seat 1: Conservative (Murdo Fraser – returning)
Seat 2: Conservative (Elizabeth Smith – returning)
Seat 3: Lib Dem (Willie Rennie – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)
Seat 4: Labour (John Park – returning)
Seat 5: Conservative (Miles Briggs – new face)
Seat 6: Green (Mark Ruskell – new face for 2011 but returning from 2003-7 session)
Seat 7: SNP (Annabelle Ewing – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)

(Seat 8 would be Labour, with Claire Baker returning to Holyrood, but she loses out if Labour take the Dunfermline constituency from the Lib Dems as the latter are compensated on the list)

There was a mistake in my methodology, which heavily UNDERSTATED Labour’s vote share.  Thanks to several folk for pointing out I’d made a mistake. I couldn’t find it earlier, but I’ve found it now.  Anyway, revised figures mean the following:

Seat 1: Conservative (Murdo Fraser – returning)
Seat 2: Conservative (Elizabeth Smith – returning)
Seat 3: Labour (John Park – returning)
Seat 4: Labour (Claire Baker – returning)
Seat 5: Lib Dem (Willie Rennie – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)
Seat 6: Conservative (Miles Briggs – new face)
Seat 7: SNP (Annabelle Ewing – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)

(Seat 8 would be Green – Mark Ruskell returning to Holyrood after missing the 2007-11 session).

So, expected Mid-Scotland and Fife result (2007 in brackets):

SNP –5 + 1 =6 (6)
Labour – 3 + 2 = 5 (5)
Lib Dem – 1 + 1 = 2 (2)
Conservative – 0 + 3 = 3 (3)
7 female to 9 male
12 returning to 4 new faces (2 already known to us as former MPs or MSPs from a previous session)

Tactical voting?
The net result is a Green gain from Labour overall, which is the case whether Labour win Dunfermline from the Lib Dems or not. The net result would now be NO CHANGE from 2007.  The Lib Dems are due two seats, so if they don’t win one seat, they’ll get one on the list.  Similarly, the Tories are likely to win 3 of the list seats, while the Greens, with their share of the vote, are also likely to return one.  Which leaves 2 (or 3, depending on Dunfermline) up for grabs.  This will depend on the close constituencies – if the SNP hang on in all 5, they’ll claim one list seat and Labour the other (as outlined above).  If Lab gain one constituency from the SNP (as well as the likely win in Dunfermline), the SNP would win 2 list seats, compensating for their constituency losses (and providing the same overall result, if not faces, as above – we’d also lose John Park from the Parliament).  If Labour take THREE constituencies from the SNP (unlikely?) as well as Dunfermline, then there is a net gain for Labour.  In that final scenario however, the Greens would only take the last seat by 200 votes from the SNP… so I guess if the Greens want some tactical voting advice here it is to heavily push for the list vote – I make them short by around 500 or so votes now…

Commenting:
Regrettably, on some of the more recent threads, some of the comments have gotten a bit personal and unfocused.  Unfortunately, as the election gets closer and tension rises, this is likely to get worse.  We don’t want this to turn into the comments sections on “quality” newspapers with the excessive aggressive bile on there.  So let’s try to keep the comments as polite as possible and “respectfully disagree”.  Otherwise, you can shout about freedom of speech all you like – they will be moderated and binned.  Thanks in advance.