Here we are then, region 3 in our 8-part series of looking at the regions partaking in the Scottish Parliament elections and speculating over who may win where based largely on recent polling, but also a little bit on transparent hunches here and there. Let’s kick off shall we:
Almond Valley – The tightest constituency after the boundary changes were applied to the 2007 result, with the SNP notional victors by a slender 4 votes. Yes, 4 votes. Angela Constance should be a popular candidate locally but any SNP victory would have to go down as a surprise as there’s no reason why this constituency shouldn’t follow the national swing. Labour gain – Laurence Fitzpatrick
Edinburgh Central – On paper this is something of a four-way contest but in reality (in my view) a straight dogfight between Labour and the Lib Dems. This is student territory if my local geography is correct and I see the Lib Dem voteshare sinking even deeper than the national swing we are seeing in the polls. Labour hold – Sarah Boyack
Edinburgh Eastern – Another tight contest from the 2007 notional results with the SNP ahead by only 545 votes. There are probably too many local factors at play here to put too much stock in the national swing from the polls so it is something of a judgement call. On one hand the incumbent is Kenny MacAskill, a highly visible Minister which will come with an electoral benefit. On the other hand (1) the challenger is Ewan Aitken who is the former leader of the Council so no stranger to the electorate (2) Kenny is guaranteed re-election via the lists which Ewan is surely reminding the voters (3) the Labour machine in this part of Edinburgh is fierce, winning a UK-level award at party conference last year and confounding many expectations with a super comfortable victory in the Westminster elections (4) There is a sizeable Lib Dem vote from 2007 that, if polls are anything to go by, will largely, tactically go to Labour. I say all this to set up what I think will happen – Labour gain – Ewan Aitken
Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Despite regular speculation that the incumbent would be retiring, this should be a straightforward win for Labour despite the Lib Dems and the recently parachuted-in Shirley-Anne Somerville vying for main challenger position. Labour hold – Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh Pentlands – A three-horse race if you look at it one way and a safe Tory seat if you look at it another. David McLetchie appears to be a popular MSP in these parts (and nationally). Labour and the SNP are effectively neck-and-neck, 2,600 votes shy of the Conservatives’ 11,178 from 2007. Applying the national swing gives the Conservatives a 1,000 lead which seems a reasonable cushion before even considering an incumbency factor. Tory hold – David McLetchie
Edinburgh Southern – Labour are in clear second place here but the Lib Dems have a 3,955 lead from 2007. A lot will depend on the strength of Mike Pringle’s personal vote (which I have no view on) but I think the Lib Dems will fight just enough on the doorsteps to hold on to this one Lib Dem hold – Mike Pringle
Edinburgh Western – A reasonably safe Lib Dem hold – Margaret Smith
Linlithgow – Fiona Hyslop and Mary Mulligan renew old rivalries from 2007 as the SNP seek to close a 294 majority from 2007 (old boundaries, maj = 1,150). The boundaries have been kind but unless we start to see the SNP pulling ahead in the national polls, I can see no reason why there should be a surprise gain here. Labour hold – Mary Mulligan
Midlothian North & Musselburgh – A similar situation to Linlithgow but with a wider majority for Labour to defend over the SNP from 2007. Rhona Brankin may be stepping down but an SNP gain would still be a shock. Labour gain – Bernard Harkins
So that is the contentious constituencies out of the way, now for the regional breakdown on the basis of a national voteshare of Lab-37%, SNP-34%,Con-15%,LD-10%,Grn-5% (adjusting, as always, for the specific regional split by party in 2007)
1 – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
2 – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
3 – SNP (Shirley-Anne Somerville)
4 – Green (Alison Johnstone)
5 – Ind (Margo MacDonald)
6 – SNP (Angela Constance)
7 – Cons (Gavin Brown)
8 – SNP (George Kerevan)
NB: The Greens could win 2 MSPs here and I’m sure it could be done in a number of ways but by my calculations, the Conservative national voteshare would have to fall to around 12.7% and the Green vote share be at around 6.7% to enable this to happen, unless of course the SNP were to start dropping to below 30% (which I find unlikely).
Tactical voting considerations – The Lib Dems do not win an extra MSP if they miss out on one of Edinburgh Western or Edinburgh Southern. Consequently, a tactical vote (from a Green or SNP perspective) would be to consider voting Lib Dem in their winnable seats in this region. As the Conservatives are close to not getting a second MSP from the regional vote if they win Edinburgh Pentlands (but would definitely win one if McLetchie lost out), then a tactical vote, again from a Green or SNP perspective, is to vote David McLetchie in Edinburgh Pentlands.
“Vote Tory”, what a strange way to sign off on a region post but that is how the Lothians works sometimes; you often have to go backwards in order to move forwards. Just ask the Edinburgh Trams team…
#1 by Chris Jones on March 23, 2011 - 2:25 pm
Jeff,
For once I actually feel that your “intuition” is way off – and displays that perhaps you’re now out of touch with Edinburgh politics and therefore not best placed to make predictions….
So – here goes for the things that you don’t mention:
Sarah Boyack is indeed a respected politician, but due to boundary changes has lost a significant number of her voters. She is also orphaned form any Labour campaign machine – Labour still organise on a Westminster, not Holyrood basis – and it is well know that she has been left without human and financial resources by the squabbling CLPs that share responsibility for her area. Why do you think that she has been allowed to be the exception to the rule and allowed to stand in both list and constituency?
You fail to mention that the Lib Dem and SNP candidates are very well resourced and have extremely strong on-the-ground campaigns. You actually fail to mention Marco at all – he is both doing well and notionally & on-the-ground is a clear challenger. Also, don’t write off Cole-Hamilton for the Lib Dems: he’s leading a strongly resourced local campaign, has a seemingly bottomless pit of cash and has covered the area well (with the usual Lib Dem nonsense!)
Edinburgh East – sorry, but again if you knew anything about what was actually happening in the constituency you’d know that Kenny’s personal vote is rocketing – and Labour know it. Yes, they have a strong campaign and an excellent campaign leader, but their candidate is awful…. Anyone who is under the illusion that this area is going Labour is simply sampling party loyalty, rather than asking which candidate they will be voting for.
And with regards to Shirley-Anne Somerville, I take exception to the “parachuted in” dig: Shirley-Anne has been working hard in Edinburgh for a long time, previously stood in areas covered by the new constituency and is nationally recognised as leading the key political debates in North and Leith – ie Trams and Biomass for instance.
Oh, and Mike Pringle hasn’t got a strong enough personal vote to deal with the coalition toxicity……
Come back and find out for yourself!
Chris
#2 by Jeff on March 23, 2011 - 3:48 pm
Thanks for the comment Chris. Some fair points and others, I believe, less so (Andrea has already replied on your rather odd comment regarding Sarah Boyack)
So much in all of this is subjective, that’s part of the fun, and we quickly get to an ‘agree to disagree’. You are correct that I am a long way from being ‘on the ground’ but I still have the emails from SNP candidates at GE2010 who were annoyed at their chances being dismissed on my old blog, lots of ‘if you could see what I could see you’d think differently, amazing canvassing returns, etc etc’ comments. Each of them finished 3rd or 4th and I haven’t heard a peep since. It’s understandable that people close to the action can whip themselves up into a position of over-believing. You must have thought at times that Calum Cashley was going to do better than 4th last year? One could argue that ‘not’ being on the ground gives you a better perspective of what is happening but that’s just me trying to make myself feel better about being stuck in London (honestly, Sydney 4 years ago, England now, will I ever get to be in town when the fun and games start!?)
I am largely going by the swing in the national polls with these posts, those votes have to go somewhere so that’s where I’m taking my armour from blog-reprisals. So, if the SNP surges forwards over the next week or two, then that will form the basis of a change of mind on Kenny’s chances or Fiona Hyslop’s (I maintain that Marco has little chance beyond being an also-ran, hence his not getting a special mention). Keep in mind that the polls suggest Kenny will lose by 2,200 votes. One could say I’m being generous by even saying it’s a toss-up! Anyway, such a Salmond surge is perfectly possible of course, with Soutar’s cash still to spend and Gray struggling to gain a foothold to stop the backwards momentum. I don’t think the ‘anti-Tory = pro-Labour’ sentiment should be underplayed though.
We’re in unchartered territory these days and some people will get to say ‘I told you so’ in several weeks and some people will have a very tough May 6th once the votes are counted. 44 days and we’ll find out which side of that divide you’re on matey. I do genuinely hope it’s the former.
#3 by Chris Jones on March 23, 2011 - 4:29 pm
What is odd about the Boyack statement? Labour used to have a “list or constituency but not both” rule – which is now being exceptionally ignored for Boyack and others in this election because they might lose. And in Boyack’s case that might be the case – and I would actually be sorry to see her go and replaced by a Lib Dem….
#4 by Jeff on March 23, 2011 - 4:58 pm
My original interpretation was that you were suggesting that Sarah Boyack is allowed to stand on the List and in the Constituency because “she has been left without human and financial resources by the squabbling CLPs that share responsibility for her area”.
#5 by Malc on March 24, 2011 - 9:03 am
Chris,
I wrote at the time of the original boundary proposals (in 2008) that I thought that the boundaries for Edinburgh East (as it was then) would favour Labour over the SNP. I was invited (by colleagues) to change my opinion (thus it doesn’t appear in that link). That was based purely on the boundaries though.
To defend Jeff, he’s using recent polling to give a picture of what would happen if the election was roughly today. If it (the polling) is correct, we’d be seeing what Jeff suggests. Further, I live in Edinburgh and I asked Jeff if he would do the Lothians picture so that it was less biased/ perhaps more objective than my own take on matters. Being here has its advantages (as you say, you know about the local circumstances) but being above the fray, so to speak, is also useful, because then you can simply look at the numbers and boundaries etc and project from that.
But also, as Jeff says, he got a lot of comments last year from SNP activists saying they were going to win… and then nothing when his “Lab holds” were proven accurate. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating – though I do suspect that the polls will tighten dramatically the closer to election day we get, making our projections something of a moot point!
#6 by Andrea on March 23, 2011 - 3:15 pm
“Why do you think that she has been allowed to be the exception to the rule and allowed to stand in both list and constituency?”
All Labour constituency MSPs with their majorities taken away by boundary changes have been allowed to do so. Lewis MacDonald and Murray are doing it too (I suppose McIntosh isn’t doing it because it’s pointless to stand in Labour West Scotland list)
#7 by Danny1995 on March 23, 2011 - 4:46 pm
I agree with all constituency and list predictions except one; I think Labour win Edinburgh South.
#8 by Steve on March 23, 2011 - 5:15 pm
Given that over 70,000 voters are likely to waste their votes on labour list candidates I think it’s time for a campaign to get them to vote green and SSP in equal measure.
#9 by James on March 23, 2011 - 5:32 pm
Jeff, you really think the Greens’ll get just 5% in Lothian, or have I mis-read this?
1999: 6.9%
2003: 12%
2007: 7%
2011: ?? 5%??!
#10 by Jeff on March 23, 2011 - 5:40 pm
You’ve misread it James. 5% for the Greens nationally equates to ~8.2% in Lothians in my workings.
I’ve held Margo’s number of votes flat at 19,000 so there may be some rounding there.
#11 by James on March 23, 2011 - 10:05 pm
Thanks for the clarification!
#12 by Indy on March 23, 2011 - 6:11 pm
Don’t know much about Lothians but I totally agree with Chris that Labour are seriously disadvantaged by having their constituency organisations structured on Westminster boundaries. If the CLPs are not seeing eye to eye in Edinburgh Central that’s not the only place this is happening. Also, Labour seem to be getting dragged into the AV referendum while the SNP is quite sensibly ignoring it.
#13 by An Duine Gruamach on March 23, 2011 - 6:13 pm
I live in Edinburgh Central, and so far the only leaflets I’ve had through my door have been from the SNP and the Greens. The only stalls I’ve seen on the streets have been the SNP and the SSP.
#14 by Gaz on March 23, 2011 - 6:38 pm
I think you are misreading the swing thing Jeff.
The polls show both Labour and SNP benefitting from the LibDem collapse.
My contention is that ex-LibDem votes will largely go to incumbents (as long as they are effective) because when people make a change they almost always opt for the most comfortable change available.
I fully expect the SNP to retain their two FPTP seats with comfortable majorities – certainly 4 figures. I posted somewhere a while back that it was difficult to see why any seat would change hands between Labour and the SNP, although there is usually a surprise somewhere along the way, and the latest polls showing a gap of 3 – 4 % on the constituency vote make that a highly likely scenario.
I think the SNP has made a mistake in changing its candidate in Edinburgh West because I think a lot of votes that would have come Sheena Cleland’s way because of her years of campaiging in that seat will now go elsewhere.
#15 by Colin on March 23, 2011 - 9:24 pm
Whilst I still think the Liberals will hold Edinburgh Western, I don’t think it’s nearly as safe as you point out. The SNP surged to second place there last time and at the general election the Liberal Democrat vote crashed by a massive 13.6%. If they can do that badly in an election where they were polling very well, I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP don’t come very close to winning that seat.
The Tories are a close third, but I don’t see them gaining anything and Labour are practically written off in this seat, meaning any swing to them from the Liberals wont really help them.
Just thought I would take expand on this seat, since you only gave it one line and it is my local constituency.
#16 by Jeff on March 23, 2011 - 9:32 pm
Yeah, I was running out of time with this post a little bit. If ‘W’ was higher up the alphabet, I might have written more.
Fair points about the Lib Dem vote crashing in Edinburgh Western in 2010 but there was a changing of the guard at the time and consequently no incumbency factor; Margaret Smith has been an MSP here for twelve years with a stonking majority every time. Yes, the gap will close and yes the Lib Dems sold out on fees but this is posh Lib Dem territory, the SNP has changed its challenger, the bulk of Nat activists will be elsewhere and, so, there shouldn’t be too many major shocks here.
I think, at least.
#17 by Colin on March 23, 2011 - 9:45 pm
Yes, I do agree with that. The gap has been closing at almost every election since the first Scottish Parliament election, so I only think it’s a matter of time before it eventually switches hands. It probably won’t happen this time.
Also, why does everyone else in Edinburgh call people from Corstorphine/Murrayfield/Cramond posh all the time?!?
#18 by Jeff on March 23, 2011 - 9:57 pm
I was thinking more Barnton. Isn’t Corstorphine in Edinburgh Central?
In terms of “the gap closing at almost every election since the first”. Keep in mind that is only 3 elections so there is only 2 opportunities for the gap to close. That gap has been 16.8%, 17.8%, 16.9% over the past 3 elections, it doesn’t really suggest it’s going to swing past 0% does it?
I was living in a safe Lib Dem seat for the 2010 election, I know how dull it can be.
#19 by Colin on March 23, 2011 - 10:25 pm
Haha. indeed…
Corstorphine is further West than Murrayfield. It’s almost bang in the middle of the constituency.
So far I’ve not had any Lib Dem leaflets though. I’ve only had SNP and Conservative.
#20 by Jeff on March 23, 2011 - 10:29 pm
From Wikipedia:
“Corstorphine / Murrayfield is divided between Central, and Western.” Well, now we know.
#21 by Colin on March 23, 2011 - 9:26 pm
Also, Aitken isn’t that popular… At least that’s the impression I’ve gotten living in Edinburgh all my life.
#22 by Kate on March 23, 2011 - 10:16 pm
Bloody hell Jeff! I just about catch up by drafting “revisited” posts – out tomorrow – and you go and do another one. Fortunately, this time there’s likely to be lots of disagreement….
#23 by Jeff on March 23, 2011 - 10:18 pm
Sorry Kate, though be aware that I think Malc might have another region ready to go for tomorrow (no promises though…..)
I look forward to the disagreeing; as you can see, I am getting used to it….!
#24 by Malc on March 24, 2011 - 9:14 am
I’m working on it!
#25 by Malc on March 24, 2011 - 9:13 am
By the way – an angle no one else has pointed out.
16 seats in the constituency (9+7). If Jeff’s predictions are correct (and I agree – I’m not sold on ALL of them!) then we’d have a 50:50 male to female split of representatives (which, I suspect, would be a first for a Scottish Parliamentary region).
If Almond Valley stays with the SNP we might see a female majority, since Angela Constance would win the seat at the expense of a male while if Labour were compensated on the list (and I haven’t done the numbers for this) then Kezia Dugdale would enter Holyrood.
Is this something we should be considering when we go to the polls?
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#26 by Paul on March 24, 2011 - 2:21 pm
Out here in the forgotten land of Linlithgowshire, outwith the capital, the electioneering has been non-existent so far. I like to think we are doing our bit for the environment.
Fiona Hyslop seems to have a bigger local presence than Mary Mulligan to me, but when has that ever stopped a Labour candidate. We shall see.
#27 by Alex on March 24, 2011 - 5:28 pm
jeff
i think a very honest appraisal of the situation in the lothians. Canvas returns are all very well, but the professional pollsters get paid for a reason. they were pretty close in 2010 and no reason (as you comment later) for them not to be right now. A lot of close seats here, Eastern, Central, Southern, Pentlands? even west if things are really bad for the libs (SNP could be a close 2nd).
#28 by Danny1995 on March 24, 2011 - 6:15 pm
Almond Valley: Laurence Fitzpatrick(LAB)
Edinburgh Central: Sarah Boyack(LAB)
Edinburgh Eastern: Ewan Aitken(LAB)
Edinburgh North & Leith: Malcolm Chisholm(LAB)
Edinburgh Pentlands: David McLetchie(CON)
Edinburgh Southern: Paul Godzik(LAB)
Edinburgh Western: Margaret Smith(LD)
Linlithgow: Mary Mulligan(LAB)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh: Bernard Hopkins(LAB)
1. Kenny McAskill(SNP)
2. Fiona Hyslop(SNP)
3. Shirley Anne Sommerville(SNP)
4. Gavin Brown(CON)
5. Margo MacDonald(IND)
6. Alison Johnstone(GRN)
7. Angela Constance(SNP)
Total
7LAB, 4SNP, 2CON, 1LD, 1GRN, 1IND
Running(4 of 8 regions predicted)
SNP – 25
LAB – 20
CON – 7
LD – 6
GRN – 1
IND – 1
#29 by cynicalHighlander on March 25, 2011 - 10:48 pm
Jeff OT: This might be of interest.
http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/our-events/97/policy-reunion-scottish-devolution
#30 by Top Tory Aide on March 26, 2011 - 10:45 am
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/MSP-pays-2800-over-39error39.6740618.jp
Poor Mike….
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