There was a time when the SNP’s main appeal was as a direct result of the thrust and vigour with which the party threw itself into the issues of the day. Furthermore, there was no issue too challenging, too difficult, that the Nationalists weren’t too afraid to stick their oar into – PFI, free school meals, minimum pricing, Council Tax, constitutional matters, tuition fees, class sizes. Everything was on the table and the nation itself felt up for grabs.
That was four years ago and the tone of the election campaign has changed dramatically. There is a certain timidity to the SNP’s mood these days; that is perhaps due to the cat-and-mouse nature of policy setting at the moment, not to mention the difficult decision over whether being in power or out of power this time around is best for the independence objective. Furthermore, there is a crowded field in the centre and differentiating between parties is not so easy.
This is all not, I hasten to add, necessarily the SNP’s fault. It is difficult to distinguish yourself from the crowd when the main opposition is intent on aping your headline policies. On that, it will surely be to Labour’s disadvantage that between his stated preference of Council Tax rises and the popular option of scrapping the rates entirely, Iain Gray has compromised with a two year freeze (followed by a cap on rate rises below inflation). Labour looked downright silly in claiming that the SNP were copying their policy on free education when Labour introduced fees in a previous term (with the Lib Dems) and have been long term supporters of a graduate contribution.
Despite the perception of a decrease in energy besetting the SNP, they should (and clearly do) remain upbeat. Political parties are a bit like football teams after all, they only have to beat the team that is standing in front of them. If in 2007 the SNP was Brazil, then in 2011 they are more like a scrappy France – not at full potential but still on paper good enough to beat the main opposition of Iain Gray’s 10-men-behind-the-ball Greece.
A second term should be more difficult to win, and deliver in, than a first. It is the natural order of things for a public to want more and a Government to be pushed harder. Alex Salmond seems to welcome that challenge and murmurings of whether the man should have handed over to Nicola Sturgeon a year or so ago have been rightly silenced. Alex Salmond does appear to be ‘the man for the job’ as many recognised Scots have stated in the Sundays, (Jack Vettriano picking up the baton from Brian Souter and David Murray today) and he does seem to have the policies to go with it. The SNP has made clear that safeguarding free tuition, protecting and increasing investment in the NHS and ensuring zero forced redundancies will be its priorities for the term to come and, with a dwindling budget, that’s as many headline policies as one can expect from whoever takes control of Holyrood from May.
The SNP conference may have denied us any shocks, surprises or major celebrations but that’s the limit of what a party in the tail end of its fourth year of Government should be hoping for. A slick website, a strong vision, an impressive record and a solid team of Ministers. That’s a decent platform for a having a right good go at a difficult election.
And anyway, the key consideration for Scots is reason(s) for a changing of the guard at Holyrood, reason(s) to risk switching First Ministers and substituting the existing Cabinet. The SNP’s front team and leader offered up no such reasons this weekend.
The May 5th ball remains in Iain Gray’s court and while the SNP may not have the same zip and verve as four years ago, it does have more and more of the court covered. There is only several weeks left for Labour to play a decisive game-winning move but, contradictory as it may sound, the party that is currently second in the polls has put a stranglehold squeeze on its main opposition.
The decisive factor for this election remains personality. This weekend Alex Salmond has proved that Iain Gray has it all to do.
#1 by Doug Daniel on March 13, 2011 - 7:02 pm
“that’s as many headline policies as one can expect from whoever takes control of Holyrood next month.”
Great exclusive there Jeff – an April election!!! None of the papers have picked this one up yet.
Ahem…
You’ve hit upon something I’ve been considering for a while now. Labour may be ahead in the polls, but they’ve done nothing to deserve it. The SNP may not have gotten all their manifesto through (I’m willing to bet no government in the entire world ever has), but in the absence of monumental cock-ups, financial irregularities, sleaze, corruption and scandals, surely they’ve done enough in government to warrant being given a second go? I truly hope that when some of these people who appear to have deserted the Lib Dems for Labour get to the polling booths, they stop to consider if it’s really worth rocking the boat and decide to put their cross next to the SNP candidate instead.
Well, what I really hope is that people listen to the SNP’s positive campaign messages, compare them to Labour’s policy-stealing and negativity, and are won over. But I’m a pessamist so I think the former is a more likely way for the SNP to retain power. It’ll be soul destroying if Scotland returns to Labour for no reason other than “because Scotland always votes Labour when the Tories are in Westminster” – especially since a distaste for being ruled by a party that Scotland didn’t vote for is actually one of the many good reasons for Scotland becoming independent.
#2 by Jeff on March 13, 2011 - 8:36 pm
Dammit, I even proofread this one for a change. Thanks for pointing out Doug.
#3 by Mr. Mxyzptlk on March 13, 2011 - 7:41 pm
Umm!
What happened to the ‘Independence’ referendum????
There was no mention of the referendum he last year promised to make the “transcending issue†of the election.
“The rocks will melt with the sun” yeah right!
#4 by Allan on March 13, 2011 - 11:09 pm
Doug
I suspect Labour are ahead in the polls because of the last 2 years of the “Ripped Off” campaign they have been pursuing (eg the “Ripped off Glasgow” and “Ripped Off Renfrewshire” capaigns – both centred around the cancellation of the GARL), and the SNP’s inability to play that bit of spin.
Hmmm – “…in the absence of monumental cock-ups, financial irregularities, sleaze, corruption and scandals” – I’m sure you forgot Trumptown, the furore over Sturgeon’s reference and Struan Stevenson’s denial’s that snow was forecast last December. Not forgeting the great ignored scandal of Transport Scotland’s awarding of the Scotrail contract to First-Group.
The SNP do have a lot of work to do, to convince people that they deserve a second chance, that they have a vision of where we need to go. But to portray the last 4 years as a stunning success is rewriting history a bit. They have been competent (admittedly in the face of adverse parliamentery arithmatic), nothing more, nothing less. Salmond has however raised the bar for First Minister, away from the “Do less better” brigade.
#5 by Malc on March 14, 2011 - 7:59 am
I’m sure you mean Stewart Stevenson on the snow thing, and not Tory MEP Struan Stevenson. Unless he had a hand in the snow that we didn’t notice…
#6 by Allan on March 15, 2011 - 6:46 pm
Damn those vil Tories with their special powers!!!!
Apologies, I meant Stewart Stevenson
#7 by Caron on March 16, 2011 - 9:06 am
You aren’t taking account of the work that Alan MacRae and Robbie Rowantree are doing on the ground in the two northernmost mainland seats. You can never take anything for granted, but a good couple of years’ hard work from both of them will help their defence of these two seats. I’m looking forward to spending a week of the campaign up there helping Alan and Christine Jardine in Inverness. I wouldn’t write her off either and by-election results over the years in the Inverness area don’t make comfortable reading for the SNP.