There is only one form of answer that David Cameron would realistically give to the question: ‘Who do you want to win the 2011 Holyrood election?’ and it would go something like this:

‘We are working very hard to make sure that Annabel Goldie has a strong bloc of Conservative MSPs in the Scottish Parliament, arguing in favour of the United Kingdom, arguing in favour of keeping household bills down, arguing for more police numbers and making sure some of the ballyhoo that we’ve seen over the past four years is not repeated’.

Well, ok, he’s not going to use a silly word like that. What does ‘bloc’ mean anyway?

For the viewers watching at home, they would unreasonably but understandably be hoping for a single answer – either ‘SNP’ or ‘Labour’.

Tavish, Annabel and Patrick are going to be asked this question of who they want to be the biggest party time and time again up to May 5th and they are well within their rights not to say either way.

They may well have formed a view and there is surely no doubt that the Prime Minister certainly has. So who does Dave want? Labour or SNP? Let’s look at the options shall we….

DavidCameron4SNP

Without wishing to invite the tired accusations of Tartan Tory, it is quite patently the case that Alex Salmond and David Cameron get on with each other rather well. The relationship between the two posts has certainly surely improved since Gordon Brown vacated Number 10, a period that included a whole year elapsing before the two leaders were in contact.

The calls made directly by Salmond to Cameron since the General Election include payment of the Fossil Fuel Levy, borrowing powers for the Scottish Parliament, a fuel duty regulator, capital acceleration for budget spending and Barnett consequentials from spending on the 2012 Olympics. There seems to be an implicit understanding of ‘some you win and some you lose’ around these demands, seemingly accepted with a hearty degree of respect on both sides, despite the attention-grabbing rhetoric delivered for the media headlines.

So there is a healthy, combative working relationship in place between current FM and PM but what of the thorny issue of independence? David Cameron claims to have the union jack stamped onto his insides like a stick of rock which surely rubs awkwardly against a First Minister whose main objective is to break up the United Kingdom?

Well, so far it doesn’t seem to be a problem. David Cameron is somewhat ‘above the fray’ in terms of constitutional affairs, leaving such issues to the Liberal Democrat body armour that he fashioned around his party. Alex Salmond’s main aim is to ensure the voting Scottish public is, at some point (and preferably on the day of any referendum), in favour of Scottish independence to the tune of 50.01% of turnout. That Scotland-focussed aim doesn’t really affect Cameron and his Scottish Conservative MPs. Sorry, MP. Consequently, there is no head-on collision between the two leaders. Two polar opposite views are not crossing paths and, so, not causing problems.

I would wager that the highly unlikely prospect of Cornish independence causes more headaches for David Cameron than Scottish independence does as there are more seats in the South West of the UK that the Conservatives can realistically win in 2015 than there are in the whole of Scotland.

I honestly believe there would be no hidden grimace nor silent grinding of teeth if the Prime Minister had to phone up Alex Salmond and congratulate him on a second term on May 7th.

DavidCameron4Labour

When Scottish Labour shared power at Holyrood with the Lib Dems from 1999 to 2007 there was very little discord with the, admittedly Labour, UK Government.

The Conservatives may, quite reasonably, be concerned at the prospect of being attacked by their main opposition rivals from two angles and balk at the prospect of Ed Miliband and Iain Gray being able to coordinate policy and party message with the not inconsiderable Westminster and Holyrood resources that they would have available to them.

That said, Ed Miliband has endured a timid (if not quite torrid) start to this tenure as Labour leader. Ed hit the ground sauntering and, on current evidence, there is a very high likelihood that Iain Gray would hit the ground dawdling given the lack of policy he has ready to implement and the apparent power struggle at the top of his party. David Cameron would arguably welcome having leaders that are perceived as anonymous by the Great British public across the Chamber in Westminster and at the helm in Holyrood.

In terms of policy, and independence to one side, there is probably little to choose between Labour and the SNP with regard to direct impact on the UK coalition. Both parties will complain that spending is being cut too sharply and that changes to health and education south of the border have a significant impact on Scotland as a nation that does not have the public appetite to turn GPs into accountants, quasi-privatise the NHS and charge students the earth just to go to university.

Indeed, the main concern for David Cameron in terms of the Scottish Parliament election result is what the irascible Liberal Democrats will do next. A formal coalition with the SNP or Labour in Scotland while there is a formal coalition with the Conservatives in London is surely a nightmare scenario for the Prime Minister. A tantalising thought for those of us who believe the Lib Dems sold out but surely an unworkable situation in the medium to long term nonetheless.

How the Liberal Democrats can continue to operate as a single entity while implementing contradictory policies either side of the border is beyond me. And how the coalition can continue if the Liberal Democrats were to finally sink under the weight of its own impossibly duplicitous political dexterity is anyone’s guess.
For those reasons, of which Clegg and Cameron are surely acutely aware, it is surely not possible for a Holyrood coalition to work from 2011 in any conceivable way. The Conservatives will continue to be rebuffed, the Greens will continue to be too small in number and the Lib Dems as coalition partners will quite simply be too problematic a consideration for their London leaders’ tastes.

May 2011 will see a single winner, a minority Government under one single party’s control and David Cameron must have a preference in mind. Broadly speaking, one has to think that the Prime Minister has not had too many sleepless nights over the fact that a Nationalist is currently the First Minister of Scotland and perhaps, just perhaps, David is thinking that it is a case of ‘better the Nationalist you know rather than the Unionist you don’t’.