I decided to quickly do a little bit of investigation into the likelihood of Annabel Goldie winning her First Past the Post seat, with more than a hint of a hope that the Scottish Conservative leader could pull it off. However, I came away with the conclusion that there is a greater chance that Annabel will miss out on being re-elected to the Scottish Parliament entirely.

For a start, the boundary changes have not been kind. The 2007 Renfrewshire North result was:

Labour (Trish Godman) – 10,467
Conservative (Annabel Goldie) – 8,289
SNP (Bill Wilson) – 8,167

The 2011 notional result (after boundary changes) for Renfrewshire North and West, including candidates, is:

Labour (Stuart Clark) – 11,341
SNP (Derek Mackay) – 8,236
Conservative (Annabel Goldie) – 6,420

A competitive second place has been replaced with a distant third and I have little doubt that Derek Mackay will make it known to every last constituent that he is the main challenger, according to the numbers at least.

So a FPTP victory for the Tory leader seems a remote prospect but surely Annabel will be safely returned via the seven regional seats for West of Scotland?

Well, probably, but it is by no means certain and that is in no small part thanks to Jackson Carlaw’s expected victory in Eastwood.

The breakdown of votes in the West in 2007 was as follows:

Labour – 91,725
SNP – 75,953
Conservative – 40,637
Lib Dems – 22,515
Greens – 8,152

The elected MSPs, in order of selection, had party affiliation of:

1 – SNP
2 – SNP
3 – Lib Dem
4 – Conservative
5 – SNP
6 – SNP
7 – Conservative

Now, there is an element of calculated guesstimation at play here of course but let’s assume that Labour will retake Cunninghame North in May and the breakdown of regional votes will be as follows:

SNP – 83,953
Labour – 81,725
Conservative – 32,637
Lib Dems – 16,515
Greens – 16,404

(Assumptions:
(1) Some would-be Labour voters will realise that their second vote is wasted on Labour and vote elsewhere, Greens being prime beneficiaries.
(2) Lib Dems will see votes haemorrhage to SNP and Greens
(3) Conservatives will see a small but significant dip)

The above result would give regional seats of:

1 – SNP
2 – SNP
3 – SNP
4 – SNP
5 – SNP
6 – Lib Dems
7 – Greens

So, no Conservative regional MSP and, crucially, no Annabel Goldie. And I don’t even think I’m bullsh*tting (too much).

Indeed, the whole region seems to boil down to this:
Cunninghame North is a head-to head between SNP and Labour
West of Scotland is a head-to-head between Greens and Tories