Jeff beat me to it, but for what its worth, here are my predictions for 2011.
I think Will’s predictions are pretty much in line with what I think will happen in the coming year (the politics ones, not the sports ones so much) but given I’ve tried my hand at predictions every blogging year, I figured this should be no exception. Â So, let’s get to them.
AV referendum: No vote, by 65% to 35%. Â It isn’t something anyone wants, and the lack of popularity of the only party who vaguely support it will bring the vote down. Â I suspect a higher turnout in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – but I also foresee a sizeable number of spoilt ballots, whether through intention (Bella Caledonia’s campaign) or by mistake simply because it will be held on the same day as the devolved legislatures.
Welsh Powers referendum: Yes vote, by 58% to 42%. Â I think it’ll be a comfortable-ish victory for pro-devolutionalists, though they will have to work hard over the course of the campaign.
Scottish Parliament election: Labour ending the night as the largest party, but we’ll have to wait a few days at the least to work out who will form our next government. Â Have a look at Will’s comments regarding numbers, which make it difficult to predict who will be in a position to negotiate coalition and/or confidence and supply positions, but I suspect we will have limited options given numbers (requirement to reach 65 combined seats) and ideological reasons (SNP have rules against working with the Tories at national level; Labour and Tories ideologically opposed). Â So, potential outcomes are: Labour minority, confidence & supply deal between Labour and SNP, confidence and supply deal including SNP, Tories and Greens. Â The last one sounds like a stretch, so I think my money is currently on minority Labour… which if it happens, might not last that long.
In terms of post-election stuff, new leaders for the SNP (Nicola Sturgeon to comfortably emerge from the contest ahead of Kenny MacAskill, Mike Russell and a surprising candidate) and the Conservatives (the lack of Derek Brownlee returning to Holyrood means I’m with Jeff on Murdo Fraser taking over the reigns here – though I have a hunch Elizabeth Smith may have a shot at it as well). Â I do think if Iain Gray is FM, Salmond will take a short period as leader of the opposition before riding off into the sunset… though if (and its a big if) there is any kind of agreement between the SNP and Labour, it may hinge on his pseudo-retirement (ie – no longer being leader). Â But that’s a long shot.
At Westminster, the coalition will blunder on, the Dave and Nick show surviving another year with more protests at cuts to, well, everything. Â But when the economy starts to turn, people start to be less noisy about it. Â At least, that’s what they are hoping for, right?
Sporting predictions:
Football: I think Celtic will take advantage of Rangers hectic schedule (and the fact they have a bigger and better squad) and win the SPL in Neil Lennon’s first year in charge. Hearts a lock for third while Edinburgh rivals Hibs are the shock side relegated, with Gordon Brown’s Raith Rovers replacing them in the top flight. Rangers get the League Cup (Smith’s final trophy) and Hearts the Scottish Cup.
In England, I can’t see past Man Utd for the Premiership, ahead of Arsenal, Man City and Spurs. Chelsea will make the Europa League in fifth, and probably win the FA Cup to not quite make up for a disappointing season. Relegations: West Ham, West Brom and… Fulham. Â Barcelona for the Champions League.
Rugby: France for the Six Nations, but no Grand Slam this year. Â Optimistically, Scotland to finish second. Â Rugby World Cup… New Zealand to finally achieve their potential. And if we get through our group as winners… well, notch us up as Bronze medalists. Â Is that optimistic enough?
Tennis: Well it’s time isn’t it? (what do you mean “It’s time” was four years ago?). Â Andy Murray will finally win a Grand Slam. Â But he’ll have to wait until the last one of the year – the US Open. Â Though he will reach the final in Australia and at Wimbledon. Â Honest. Â And he’ll end the year as #3 in the world, behind Nadal and Federer.
#1 by NoOffenceAlan on January 7, 2011 - 8:59 pm
I used to like this site. No longer – I’m a West Brom fan.
#2 by Malc on January 7, 2011 - 10:08 pm
Apologies. Pick 3 from 7 at the moment. I just can’t see the Baggies having the quality for staying up. But then, Blackpool are probably the same, Birmingham could go too, Wolves, Wigan… even Villa and Liverpool if they don’t get their finger out. Newcastle, in 8th in the league, are only 7 points ahead of the bottom 3. So whoever has some grit and wins the big matches will stay up.
#3 by Jeff on January 7, 2011 - 9:40 pm
And I’m a Fulham fan, terrible prediction!
I’m intrigued by your thinking that FPTP will win by 65% (not that I’ve seen any polling on it yet). What do you think will be the main reason for such a large No vote?
And why is Derek Brownlee not coming back to Holyrood? I thought he was top of the South of Scotland regional list so, in a way, the safest Tory in the land.
#4 by Malc on January 7, 2011 - 10:03 pm
My understanding was that Brownlee was second on the South of Scotland list to Peter Duncan, and given he is standing in Iain Gray’s East Lothian constituency, chances are he wouldn’t be back. But having now looked that up, I see that Duncan is third on the list and Brownlee is top – so a point for you on that one and fail marks for me! Either way, I don’t think he would be that keen on being leader.
I don’t think FPTP is popular, just that AV isn’t and folk are not motivated enough to vote for it. We’ll see, but I can’t see AV garnering more than 40% of the vote.
#5 by Daniel on January 7, 2011 - 9:57 pm
Former MP Peter Duncan was ranked higher than Brownlee on the list, doubtful he’ll get returned I think.
#6 by Jeff on January 8, 2011 - 12:08 am
I don’t know what to believe any more.
This Scotsman article says Brownlee was 1st and Peter Duncan was…. 4th!
#7 by Jeff on January 8, 2011 - 12:11 am
Confirmed!
http://www.scottishconservatives.com/news/news/new-scottish-conservative-team-to-deliver-for/800
Alistair Campbell is on there too. Bit of a surprise…
#8 by Daniel on January 8, 2011 - 4:28 pm
Sorry about that, I swear I read it in the Scotsman. Ah well.
No one has a link to the LD list anywhere? Haven’t had any luck in finding it.
I’m not sure about the AV referendum – it seems to be very much characterised by apathy, no one is very enthused. (apart from Clegg perhaps.) I think YouGov ask about peoples intentions fairly regularly and I think it’s around 50/50. Like you said no one really wants it… won’t be the first think I look at the day after polling day!
#9 by Indy on January 9, 2011 - 7:35 pm
The likelihood is that a number of people who might otherwise have voted for AV will use the AV referendum to indicate their distaste for the Lib Dems either by not voting or by voting no. That’s why I agree that it will probably be lost and the Lib Dems will not even have that fig leaf to hide their shame – or should I say shamelessness.
#10 by DaScot on January 10, 2011 - 6:17 pm
Nice list there Malc. I would add though that if Labour do form a short lived Government, M.r Gray will find his coat on a shoogly peg and he may just be “persuaded” to follow (as usual) Mr. Salmond off into the sunset.
If labour FAILS to form the Government could there be an appearance of Miliband Senior in Holyrood?
#11 by Malc on January 10, 2011 - 10:28 pm
I’d doubt it very much. He’s been Foreign Secretary – after that, wouldn’t being an MSP be a bit of a come down?
#12 by DaScot on January 11, 2011 - 12:35 am
Malc, so better to be a conscientious objector on the backbenches of Westminster than the leader of his party in a devolved parliament?
Is the Scottish Parliament really so despised by Westminster politicians?
#13 by Malc on January 11, 2011 - 9:19 am
I should point out I wasn’t being derogatory about the SP, just that I think he’d see it as a step down. And if you believe the rumours, he’s considering doing a TV series for the BBC – probably to get him off the green benches.
#14 by fitalass on January 11, 2011 - 2:58 am
Malc, very little in that list of predictions that I disagree with right now.
On the issue of the English Premiership, spare a thought for a mum who has three loons supporting, Man utd, Man City and Chelsea between them!!
#15 by Malc on January 11, 2011 - 9:21 am
Just be glad none of them support Fulham, eh Jeff?